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Birmingham City – Swansea City2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Birmingham City
1.79
Total xG
2.88
Swansea City
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Birmingham City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.34 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| August Priske not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 96% available) | ||
| Joseph Okopu on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adam Idah on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Melker Widell on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Birmingham scores 2.43 goals per game at home in the league this season, Swansea concedes 1.86 per game away
- Form: Birmingham won 4 of their last 5 matches, Swansea lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Shots on target: Birmingham averages 6 shots on target per game in recent matches, Swansea 3.4 per game
Risks
- Table: Swansea has 26 points from 14 matches in the league this season, Birmingham 26 points
- Possession: Swansea averages 61.8% possession in recent matches, Birmingham 55.4%
All probabilities
Result
Birmingham City52%
Draw26%
Swansea City22%
Double chance
Birmingham City or draw78%
Swansea City or draw48%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.79 : 1.09, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Birmingham City with Liam Millar starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/20 games, last 30)
- Birmingham City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Swansea City: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Birmingham City 4-2-3-1 · Swansea City 4-3-3
Birmingham City
- 21 R. Allsop
- 2 E. Laird
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis Romero
- 16 P. Roberts
- 18 M. Bird
- 17 L. Millar
- 28 J. Stansfield
Swansea City
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Lissah
- 5 B. Cabango
- 3 J. Seelt
- 14 J. Tymon
- 17 G. Franco
- 4 J. Fulton
- 6 M. Stamenic
- 49 M. Yeo
- 31 R. Stewart
- 10 J. Eom
Substitutes
- 7 C. Vicente Robles
- 19 T. Gardner-Hickman
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 33 M. Ducksch
- 10 D. Gray
- 8 S. Paik
- 23 D. Fry
- 32 L. Vásquez
- 30 B. Mayo
- 7 M. Widell
- 33 A. Idah
- 9 Ž. Vipotnik
- 2 J. Key
- 1 A. Fisher
- 16 T. Iorpenda
- 8 E. Just
- 30 J. Amankwaah Opoku
- 50 C. Heywood
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