Super League
Basel - Thun
02/01/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.3
2.0
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
28%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Thun is in outstanding form with four consecutive wins and is currently scoring more frequently (3.0 goals/game) than their season average
- Thun's perfect away record on grass (8 wins from 8 games) is a decisive advantage
- Thun's offense is statistically far superior, with more goals per game (2.19 vs. 1.57) and more shots on target (7.0 vs. 5.0)
Risk Factors
- Basel's positive head-to-head record (3 wins in 5 games) could be a psychological advantage
- Recent games at St. Jakob-Park have been very low-scoring (1.6 goals on average), contradicting a high-scoring prediction
- Basel has only had 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
Overview
A top clash in the Super League is coming up: Basel (4th place, 36 points) hosts league leaders Thun (1st place, 46 points) at St. Jakob-Park
The match takes place on February 1, 2026, at 4:30 PM
For Basel, it's about keeping pace with the top, while Thun aims to extend their lead
Form
Basel shows inconsistent form with a record of DDLWL from the last five matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Thun, on the other hand, is in excellent shape with a series of LWWWW, which corresponds to 4 wins from the last five games
Thun is currently on a four-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Thun has the significantly stronger offense with an average of 2.19 goals per game, compared to Basel's 1.57 goals
Thun is particularly dangerous away, scoring 2.2 goals per game
Defensively, Basel is slightly more stable, conceding an average of 1.14 goals, and only 0.78 at home
Thun's matches are often high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in 16 of 21 games
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head duels, Basel has the upper hand with 3 wins, while Thun has won only once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 9:5 in favor of Basel
The last encounter was won by Basel with a score of 3:1
Key Players
For Basel, forward Philip Otele is a key offensive factor with 5 season goals and 4 assists
Defender Dominik Schmid also contributes significantly to the attack with 5 assists
For Thun, Elmin Rastoder is in outstanding form, having scored 7 goals and provided 4 assists this season
Midfielder Leonardo Bertone is also very dangerous with 6 season goals
Goalkeepers
Mirko Salvi will be in goal for Basel
Thun's goal will be defended by Niklas Steffen, who has kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches this season
Influences
St. Jakob-Park has seen an average of only 1.6 goals per game in the last five matches, suggesting rather low-scoring games
Thun has a flawless away record on grass with 8 wins in 8 games and a goal difference of 19:5
Basel's home record on grass is balanced with 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses