Match report →
Sparta Rotterdam – Feyenoord0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Total xG
2.53
Feyenoord
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Tobias Lauritsen not in squad (12 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Joshua Kitolano not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mitchell van Bergen on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Teo Quintero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Jordan Bos not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Oussama Targhalline on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tsuyoshi Watanabe not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mats Deijl on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Sparta Rotterdam: Only 36% of their regular goal-scoring strength is available, with key players like Tobias Lauritsen, Joshua Kitolano, Mitchell van Bergen, and Teo Quintero missing from the lineup
- Tactical offensive advantage: Feyenoord averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Sparta Rotterdam's average of only 3.0 shots on target
- Artificial turf dominance: Feyenoord travels undefeated on artificial turf (5 wins, 1 draw) to face a struggling Sparta side with 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Sparta Rotterdam conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches, significantly higher than their season average of 1.88
- Struggling offense: The hosts' goal production is currently stalling at just 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2
- Squad absences for Feyenoord: Key players like Jordan Bos, Oussama Targhalline, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, and Mats Deijl are missing from the visitors' starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw29%
Feyenoord48%
Double chance
Sparta Rotterdam or draw52%
Feyenoord or draw77%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Sparta Rotterdam with Casper Terho: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Feyenoord: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Feyenoord: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Sparta Rotterdam: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 · Feyenoord 4-2-3-1
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 F. Bednarek
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 6 M. Young
- 8 J. Toornstra
- 7 C. Terho
- 10 S. Mito
- 11 A. Santos
- 9 N. Þórisson
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 10 L. Valente
- 27 G. Diarra
- 9 A. Ueda
Substitutes
- 19 M. Zonneveld
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 15 G. Vianello
- 22 J. Ideho
- 17 M. van Bergen
- 18 R. van Cruijsen
- 21 Y. Jaber el Maftahi
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 12 B. Reith
- 20 R. Suur
- 39 L. Bossin
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 49 S. van Persie
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 30 J. Lotomba
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 47 N. Kasanwirjo
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 32 T. Wessels
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