đŸ‡łđŸ‡±

Eredivisie

PSV - Fortuna Sittard

08/08/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
PSV
2.5
Total xG
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

8%
What influences the xG?
PSVFS

PSV

Attack strength (4.65x league average)
+2.50
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.5 league avg)
+0.95
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.30
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.12
Esmir Bajraktarevic on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Yarek Gasiorowski on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Kiliann Sildillia on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.38x league average)
-2.53
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-1.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Kaj Sierhuis not in squad (12 goals, 1 assists)
Dimitrios Limnios not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Kristoffer Peterson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Lance Duijvestijn not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Neraysho Kasanwirjo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
49% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard with Justin Hubner: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    PSV: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Fortuna Sittard: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

19%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Strong offensive form: PSV currently score more frequently (3.8 goals on average recently) compared to their season average of 2.8
  • Significant squad blow for Fortuna Sittard: Only 70% of the usual starting goal threat is available as top scorer Kaj Sierhuis (12 goals) is not in the lineup
  • Superior tactical metrics: PSV averaged 7.0 shots on target per match with a dominant 58% average possession recently
Risk Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard concede an average of 2.27 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

PSV host Fortuna Sittard at the Philips Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 8, 2026, 8:00 PM

PSV start in 8th place (0 points) against Fortuna Sittard in 14th place (0 points)

Form

PSV form string is WWDWW

The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their recent games

Fortuna Sittard enter with a form of DLLWL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Statistics

PSV averaged 2.97 goals scored per match last season

The home side conceded 1.32 goals per game on average

Fortuna Sittard averaged 1.44 goals scored per match

The visitors conceded an average of 1.85 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the past 4 head-to-head matches, PSV recorded 4 wins

Fortuna Sittard did not win any of these matches

The goal difference is 14 to 5 in favor of PSV

The last meeting on January 17, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for PSV

Key Players

Ricardo Pepi scored 16 goals and provided 1 assist in 26 appearances

Guus Til recorded 14 goals and 5 assists in 29 matches

Ivan Periơić contributed 7 goals and 12 assists in 30 games

Mohamed Ihattaren registered 6 goals and 10 assists in 28 matches

Philip Brittijn scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in 32 matches

Yassin Oukili scored 2 goals in 13 appearances

Goalkeepers

Matej Kovar played 31 matches this season and kept 7 clean sheets

Mattijs Branderhorst played 24 matches and registered 3 clean sheets

Influences

The average number of goals at the Philips Stadion was 5.4 per match recently

The BTTS rate at the venue was 100% in recent matches

The match is played on natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.