Match report →
PSV – Fortuna Sittard2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
PSV
2.45
Total xG
3.48
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.38x league average) | −2.53 | |
| Attack strength (4.65x league average) | +2.50 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 3 league avg) | −1.15 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.5 league avg) | +0.95 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Esmir Bajraktarevic on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Yarek Gasiorowski on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kiliann Sildillia on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Kaj Sierhuis not in squad (12 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dimitrios Limnios not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Kristoffer Peterson on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lance Duijvestijn not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Neraysho Kasanwirjo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 49% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong offensive form: PSV currently score more frequently (3.8 goals on average recently) compared to their season average of 2.8
- Significant squad blow for Fortuna Sittard: Only 70% of the usual starting goal threat is available as top scorer Kaj Sierhuis (12 goals) is not in the lineup
- Superior tactical metrics: PSV averaged 7.0 shots on target per match with a dominant 58% average possession recently
Risks
- Fortuna Sittard concede an average of 2.27 goals per away match
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
PSV68%
Draw19%
Fortuna Sittard13%
Double chance
PSV or draw87%
Fortuna Sittard or draw32%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Fortuna Sittard: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Fortuna Sittard with Justin Hubner: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- PSV: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
PSV 4-2-3-1 · Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 5 I. Perišić
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 10 P. Wanner
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 20 G. Til
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 9 R. Pepi
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 2 S. Wylin
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 5 Y. Oukili
- 25 L. Zeefuik
- 10 O. ter Haar Romeny
Substitutes
- 25 K. Sildillia
- 14 A. Pléa
- 1 N. Olij
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 35 J. van den Berg
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 38 F. Merién
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 33 E. Bassey
- 9 A. Descotte
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 20 E. Michut
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 35 K. Burgsteden
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