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NEC Nijmegen – Telstar1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
1.85
Total xG
3.29
Telstar
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- NEC Nijmegen averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Telstar currently scores more frequently (average 2.2 goals) than their season average of 1.5 goals
- The mathematical prediction calculates 1.85 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.44 for Telstar
Risks
- Bryan Linssen, Kodai Sano, Philippe Sandler, and Eli Dasa are missing, with only 57% of goal threat available
- Sem van Duijn, Danny Bakker, Tyrese Noslin, Guus Offerhaus, and Cedric Hatenboer are missing, with only 67% of goal threat available
- Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
All probabilities
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- NEC Nijmegen with Başar Önal: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Telstar with Rojendro Oudsten: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Telstar: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- NEC Nijmegen: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 · Telstar 4-2-3-1
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 2 B. Pereira
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 24 D. Fonville
- 25 S. Ouaissa
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 9 T. Chery
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 10 D. Tadić
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 3 G. Alders
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 S. Hetli
- 9 J. Seedorf
Substitutes
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 7 E. Mor
- 3 P. Sandler
- 5 T. Ouwejan
- 30 B. Linssen
- 36 F. Entius
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 37 M. van de Wiel
- 34 K. Kers
- 21 T. Storm
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 38 J. Geneste
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 18 G. Caschili
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 19 F. Rust
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