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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - FC Twente

08/09/2026, 02:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
2.1
Total xG
3.6
FC Twente
1.5
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SHFT

SC Heerenveen

Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.87
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.16
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.15
Joris van Overeem not in squad (2 goals, 10 assists)
Oliver Braude on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

FC Twente

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.26
Kristian Hlynsson on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Ruud Nijstad on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Twente with Marko Pjaca: 3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    SC Heerenveen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

23%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Heerenveen faces a Twente defense that is more vulnerable away from home, conceding Avg. 1.41 goals
  • Possession dominance: Twente recently averaged 61% possession and Avg. 8.2 shots on target
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Heerenveen a 51% probability of winning
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: FC Twente with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Offensive trend: SC Heerenveen's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive pattern: Twente currently concedes more goals, averaging 1.8 in recent matches compared to 1.26 over the season
Overview

SC Heerenveen hosts FC Twente at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Eredivisie season opener on August 9, 2026, 4:45 PM

Both teams start the new season level on points in 8th and 11th place

Form

SC Heerenveen enters with form WWLDL

Heerenveen's last match ended in a loss

FC Twente travels with form WLLDW

Twente's last match ended in a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SC Heerenveen scored Avg. 1.69 goals and conceded Avg. 1.60 last season

In home games Heerenveen scored Avg. 1.65 and conceded Avg. 1.20

FC Twente scored Avg. 1.74 goals per match while conceding Avg. 1.18

In away games Twente conceded an average of 1.41 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct duels in recent years

FC Twente dominated with 3 wins and 1 draw

The last encounter on February 7, 2026, ended in a clear 5-0 win for Twente

Goal difference stands at 12-4 in favor of Twente

Key Players

Jacob Trenskow with 13 goals and 5 assists last season

Dylan Vente with 8 goals and 3 assists in Heerenveen's attack

Daan Rots with 9 goals and 4 assists for FC Twente

Not nominated for the home team: Joris van Overeem (2 goals, 10 assists), Oliver Braude (0 goals, 4 assists)

Not nominated for the away team: Kristian Hlynsson (10 goals, 4 assists), Ruud Nijstad (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Bernt Klaverboer in Heerenveen's goal with 5 clean sheets last season

Lars Unnerstall for Twente with 8 clean sheets

In away matches Unnerstall kept only 1 clean sheet

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 home matches

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