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SC Heerenveen – FC Twente1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
2.11
Total xG
3.60
FC Twente
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Joris van Overeem not in squad (2 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Oliver Braude on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Kristian Hlynsson on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ruud Nijstad on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Heerenveen faces a Twente defense that is more vulnerable away from home, conceding Avg. 1.41 goals
- Possession dominance: Twente recently averaged 61% possession and Avg. 8.2 shots on target
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Heerenveen a 51% probability of winning
Risks
- Fatigue factor: FC Twente with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Offensive trend: SC Heerenveen's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Defensive pattern: Twente currently concedes more goals, averaging 1.8 in recent matches compared to 1.26 over the season
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen51%
Draw23%
FC Twente26%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw74%
FC Twente or draw49%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- FC Twente with Marko Pjaca: 3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- SC Heerenveen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-1-4-1 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 15 M. Egbring
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 6 D. Proper
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 16 M. Linday
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 29 L. Machine
- 9 D. Vente
FC Twente
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 38 M. Bruns
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 11 D. Rots
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Substitutes
- 23 D. Bladi
- 7 M. Rivera
- 8 L. Brouwers
- 14 L. Smans
- 17 N. Søyset Hopland
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 11 L. Oyen
- 47 K. Schaken
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 16 J. Drommel
- 4 M. Kjølø
- 12 G. Martinho Peixoto
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 19 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 43 R. Nijstad
- 10 S. Lammers
- 24 K. Kurowski
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