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FC Groningen – FC Utrecht2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Groningen
2.01
Total xG
3.62
FC Utrecht
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Younes Taha not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Dies Janse not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marvin Peersman not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gjivai Zechiël not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Souffian El Karouani not in squad (3 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Artem Stepanov not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesper Karlsson not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mike van der Hoorn not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 48% available) |
Key factors
- Utrecht heavily weakened: Only 49% of typical attacking threat available without Gjivai Zechiël, Souffian El Karouani, Artem Stepanov, Jesper Karlsson and Mike van der Hoorn
- Utrecht showed strong attacking form recently, averaging 6.4 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable away defense of Utrecht, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away match
Risks
- Utrecht concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Five injured players weaken Utrecht's squad depth for the season opener
- Limited data availability regarding venue history and weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
FC Groningen46%
Draw24%
FC Utrecht30%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw70%
FC Utrecht or draw54%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- FC Utrecht: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- FC Utrecht: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- FC Utrecht: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 · FC Utrecht 4-3-3
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 2 W. Prins
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 18 T. Land
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 24 P. Clement
- 9 B. Willumsson
FC Utrecht
- 25 M. Brouwer
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 2 S. Horemans
- 44 M. Eerdhuijzen
- 92 A. Zagre
- 20 D. de Wit
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 53 F. Pohl
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 9 D. Min
- 10 Y. Cathline
Substitutes
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 29 T. Mercera
- 7 T. Hearnes
- 20 N. Eggens
- 15 E. van der Laan
- 31 R. Janse
- 34 R. Metu
- 44 J. Dillema
- 12 N. Brandis
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 K. Paredes
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 47 E. Chigozie Owen
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
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