šŸ‡³šŸ‡±

Eredivisie

FC Groningen - FC Utrecht

08/09/2026, 12:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Groningen
2.0
Total xG
3.6
FC Utrecht
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FGFU

FC Groningen

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Younes Taha not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists)
Dies Janse not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marvin Peersman not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

FC Utrecht

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Gjivai Zechiƫl not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists)
Souffian El Karouani not in squad (3 goals, 12 assists)
Artem Stepanov not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Jesper Karlsson not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mike van der Hoorn not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 48% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    FC Utrecht: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

24%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Utrecht heavily weakened: Only 49% of typical attacking threat available without Gjivai ZechiĆ«l, Souffian El Karouani, Artem Stepanov, Jesper Karlsson and Mike van der Hoorn
  • Utrecht showed strong attacking form recently, averaging 6.4 shots on target per match
  • Vulnerable away defense of Utrecht, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Utrecht concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Five injured players weaken Utrecht's squad depth for the season opener
  • Limited data availability regarding venue history and weather conditions
Overview

FC Groningen (9th place, 0 points) host FC Utrecht (13th place, 0 points)

Season opener at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium on August 9, 2026, 2:30 PM

The mathematical model predicts a 46% probability for a home win

Form

Groningen finished the previous season with a form of LLWWL

Their last result was a 0-2 loss against Ajax

Utrecht showed strong form at the end with WWWWD

Utrecht drew 1-1 against Ajax in their last match

Statistics

Groningen averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded last season

Utrecht was more offensive, averaging 1.64 goals per match

The model calculates a high 70% probability for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Utrecht won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches

Groningen only secured 1 win in this period

The last duel on February 14, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Utrecht

Key Players

Thom van Bergen was Groningen's top scorer with 9 goals

Dani de Wit scored 7 goals for Utrecht with a rising form trend

Tygo Land contributed 3 goals and shows a rising form trend

Not nominated: Younes Taha (5G/9A), Dies Janse (2G/2A), Marvin Peersman (3G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Etienne Vaessen played 30 games for Groningen, keeping 6 clean sheets at home

Michael Brouwer starts for Utrecht, having played only 2 games last season

Vaessen's form trend shows a decline after the end of last season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

Groningen's home defense was solid, conceding only 0.95 goals per home game

Utrecht struggled away, conceding an average of 2 goals per away game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.