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Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle - Ajax

08/09/2026, 12:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
PEC Zwolle
1.1
Total xG
2.6
Ajax
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PZAJA

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.80
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Kaj de Rooij not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
Odysseus Velanas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Zico Buurmeester not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Anselmo GarcĆ­a MacNulty not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

Ajax

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.50
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.28
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Anton Gaaei on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax with Anton Gaaei: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Ajax: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Ajax: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    PEC Zwolle: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

29%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Ajax's strong form: The visitors travel with 4 wins from their last 5 games and currently average 2.8 goals per match, which is higher than their season average of 1.9 goals
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax was highly dominant in recent matches, averaging 66.6% possession and 9.0 shots on target per game
  • Weakened Zwolle squad: The hosts are missing key players like Kaj de Rooij and Odysseus Velanas, leaving them with only 74% of their usual lineup strength
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Ajax has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive absences for Ajax: Injuries to defenders like J. Å utalo and K. Itakura could impact their defensive stability
  • Artificial turf factor: Zwolle is highly accustomed to playing on artificial grass at home, which might pose a challenge for the visitors
Overview

PEC Zwolle host Ajax at the MACĀ³PARK Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 9, 2026, 2:30 PM

PEC Zwolle currently sits in 7th place, while Ajax is in 12th position in the standings

Both sides enter this fixture with 0 points

Form

Ajax is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw across all competitions (WDWWW)

PEC Zwolle shows a weaker form curve with 3 losses in their last 5 matches (DLWLL)

Ajax recently won 3-1 against Shelbourne

Zwolle lost their last match 0-2 against Feyenoord

Statistics

Ajax averages 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match this season

PEC Zwolle struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2.09 goals per game

In Zwolle's home matches, an average of 1.31 goals were scored and 1.31 conceded

Ajax averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded in their away fixtures

Head-to-Head

Ajax dominates the historical head-to-head with 3 wins from the last 4 encounters

PEC Zwolle failed to win any of these direct duels, securing only a single draw

The overall goal ratio stands at 6-1 in favor of the visitors

Their last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a scoreless 0-0 draw

Key Players

Koen Kostons has been a key offensive threat with 11 goals and 6 assists this season

Thijs Oosting shows rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists over his last 5 matches

Mika Godts remains the main threat for Ajax, having recorded 17 goals and 13 assists

Goalkeepers

Jasper Schendelaar is in goal for PEC Zwolle and kept 6 clean sheets this season

Marc-AndrƩ ter Stegen guards the net for Ajax, with the away team keeping 11 clean sheets in total

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the MACĀ³PARK Stadion

PEC Zwolle has a home record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses on this surface

Ajax remains unbeaten on artificial turf, recording 3 wins and 5 draws in 8 games

The historic average goal rate at this venue stands at 2.4 goals per game

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