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PEC Zwolle – Ajax0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
1.07
Total xG
2.60
Ajax
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.80 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Kaj de Rooij not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Odysseus Velanas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Zico Buurmeester not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Anselmo García MacNulty not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Anton Gaaei on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Ajax's strong form: The visitors travel with 4 wins from their last 5 games and currently average 2.8 goals per match, which is higher than their season average of 1.9 goals
- Tactical dominance: Ajax was highly dominant in recent matches, averaging 66.6% possession and 9.0 shots on target per game
- Weakened Zwolle squad: The hosts are missing key players like Kaj de Rooij and Odysseus Velanas, leaving them with only 74% of their usual lineup strength
Risks
- Short recovery time: Ajax has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive absences for Ajax: Injuries to defenders like J. Šutalo and K. Itakura could impact their defensive stability
- Artificial turf factor: Zwolle is highly accustomed to playing on artificial grass at home, which might pose a challenge for the visitors
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle25%
Draw29%
Ajax46%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw54%
Ajax or draw75%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax with Anton Gaaei: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Ajax: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Ajax: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- PEC Zwolle: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1 · Ajax 4-3-3
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 10 K. Kostons
- 25 T. Oosting
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 6 Y. Regeer
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 9 K. Dolberg
Substitutes
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 38 G. Renwarin
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 18 O. Velanas
- 37 G. Wal
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 8 J. Brandt
- 17 D. Blind
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 11 M. Godts
- 7 M. Carrizo
- 26 M. Paes
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
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