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Eredivisie

Ajax - SC Heerenveen

08/16/2026, 02:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Ajax
2.5
Total xG
3.7
SC Heerenveen
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
AJASH

Ajax

Attack strength (1.57x league average)
+1.61
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (3 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.34
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.12
Mika Godts not in squad (17 goals, 13 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

SC Heerenveen

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.23
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)
-0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Joris van Overeem not in squad (2 goals, 10 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match)
+0.90
+0.90
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    SC Heerenveen with Joris van Overeem: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Ajax with Jorthy Mokio: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Ajax: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Ajax: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

20%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Ajax are scoring more frequently with 3.0 recent goals compared to their 1.9 season average
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax dominated recent games with an average of 69.8% possession and 9.0 shots on target
  • Form gap: Heerenveen's attack is slowing down with 1.3 recent goals compared to 1.7 on average
Risk Factors
  • Ajax face a tight schedule with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Heerenveen struggle defensively away from home conceding an average of 2.13 goals
Overview

Ajax host SC Heerenveen in the Eredivisie

Match on August 16, 2026, 4:45 PM at the Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax sit in 7th place with 3 points after their opening game

Heerenveen are in 10th place also with 3 points

Form

Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 matches showing a WWWWD form sequence

Heerenveen have been inconsistent with a recent form of WLDLW

Ajax drew their latest match against Shelbourne

Heerenveen recorded a win in their last match against FC Twente

Statistics

Ajax averaged 1.81 goals scored per match last season

Heerenveen conceded an average of 2.13 goals per away match

Ajax scored 1.84 goals on average in their home games

Heerenveen's away struggles are highlighted by 32 goals conceded in 15 games

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches have been recorded recently

Ajax won 2 of these encounters with 2 ending in a draw

The last meeting on May 17, 2026 ended in a 0-0 draw

Heerenveen have not won any of the last 4 matches against Ajax

Key Players

Steven Berghuis stands out with 4 goals and a rating of 7.33

Davy Klaassen has contributed 8 goals for the home side

Jacob Trenskow is Heerenveen's top threat with 13 season goals

Goalkeepers

Marc-AndrƩ ter Stegen starts in goal for Ajax

Bernt Klaverboer is the goalkeeper for Heerenveen

Ajax recorded 11 clean sheets over the season course

Heerenveen achieved a total of 5 clean sheets

Influences

Matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena average 3.8 goals per game

The match is played on natural grass

Ajax possess a strong home record conceding only 0.95 goals on average

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