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Eredivisie

FC Twente - PEC Zwolle

08/16/2026, 12:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Twente
2.7
Total xG
3.4
PEC Zwolle
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

7%
What influences the xG?
FTPZ

FC Twente

Attack strength (1.9x league average)
+1.64
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.14
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.06
Kristian Hlynsson on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Thomas van den Belt on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-1.46
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Kaj de Rooij not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
Sherel Floranus not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Odysseus Velanas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Zico Buurmeester not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Anselmo García MacNulty not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PEC Zwolle with Anselmo García MacNulty: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    PEC Zwolle: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Twente with Daouda Weidmann: 3.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

16%

Away Win

7%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

93%

Away or Draw

23%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged a strong 7.4 shots on target with 63% possession in recent matches
  • Strong offensive trend: Twente currently scores more frequently (2.4 goals) compared to their season average of 1.9
  • Zwolle crisis: PEC Zwolle's goal production is stalling at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Squad deficit for Zwolle: Kaj de Rooij, Sherel Floranus, Odysseus Velanas, Zico Buurmeester, and Anselmo García MacNulty are missing, leaving only 67% of usual starting lineup strength
  • Short recovery: FC Twente has only 3 days of rest since their last match compared to Zwolle's 7 days
  • Away vulnerability: PEC Zwolle conceded an average of 2.78 goals per away match last season
Overview

FC Twente (13th place, 0 points) host PEC Zwolle (15th place, 0 points) at De Grolsch Veste

Eredivisie match on August 16, 2026, 2:30 PM

Both teams started the season with a loss and seek their first points

Form

FC Twente shows form LDWLD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last game was a 3-3 draw against Dunajská Streda

PEC Zwolle has form LWLLL with 1 win and 4 losses

They suffered a 0-2 defeat against Ajax in their last match

Statistics

FC Twente scored 1.74 goals per game and conceded 1.18 on average last season

At home, Twente averaged 1.71 goals scored and conceded only 0.94 goals

PEC Zwolle conceded an average of 2.78 goals per away match last season

PEC Zwolle scored an average of 1.28 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 direct duels, Twente won 0, Zwolle won 1, and 3 ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 3-4 in favor of Zwolle

The last meeting on January 10, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Daan Rots (9 goals, 4 assists, 7.02 rating) drives the attack

Sondre Ørjasæter (3 goals, 6 assists, 7.05 rating) controls the wing

Koen Kostons is the biggest threat for the visitors with 11 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Lars Unnerstall recorded 8 clean sheets last season

Jasper Schendelaar registered a rating of 6.45 in his 2 appearances

Zwolle managed only 1 clean sheet in away matches last season

Influences

De Grolsch Veste features a natural grass pitch

The stadium history shows high-scoring matches with an average of 3.6 goals per game

Twente holds a strong home defense with only 16 goals conceded in 17 home matches last season

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