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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - AZ

08/15/2026, 04:45 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
2.1
Total xG
3.1
AZ
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
FUAZ

FC Utrecht

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+1.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.05
Gjivai Zechiƫl not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists)
Souffian El Karouani not in squad (3 goals, 12 assists)
Jesper Karlsson not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mike van der Hoorn not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

AZ

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Troy Parrott not in squad (16 goals, 4 assists)
Sven Mijnans not in squad (11 goals, 6 assists)
Isak Jensen not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Alexandre Penetra not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jordy Clasie not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    AZ: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    FC Utrecht with SĆ©bastien Haller: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Major setback for AZ: Only 48% of seasonal goal threat available with Troy Parrott, Sven Mijnans, Isak Jensen, Alexandre Penetra, and Jordy Clasie missing
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Utrecht concedes 0.71 goals on average at home, while AZ allows 2.27 goals per away game
  • Prediction advantage for Utrecht: The model calculates a 61% home win probability and forecasts 2.08 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Squad limitations for Utrecht: Gjivai ZechiĆ«l, Souffian El Karouani, Jesper Karlsson, and Mike van der Hoorn are out, with only 57% of goal threat available
  • AZ is unbeaten in 5 matches and started the season with a win, highlighting their stable form trend
Overview

FC Utrecht (12th place, 0 points) host AZ (4th place, 3 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard

Eredivisie match on August 15, 2026, 6:45 PM

The hosts aim for their first points after a loss, while the visitors look to maintain their perfect start

Form

FC Utrecht comes in with form WWWDL and a recent 1-2 loss against FC Groningen

AZ is unbeaten in 5 matches with form DDDDW, starting with a 2-0 win over ADO Den Haag

The home side won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors had 4 draws

Form-String Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Utrecht averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per match

AZ scores an average of 1.71 goals while conceding 1.50 per game

Utrecht concedes only 0.71 goals per match on average at home

The visitors display major defensive struggles on the road, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per away game

Utrecht recently played counter-oriented with an average of 43% possession and 5.6 shots on target

AZ was possession-dominant in recent matches, averaging 55% possession and 5.0 shots on target

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, FC Utrecht won 2, AZ won 1, and 1 ended in a draw

The goal difference in these direct encounters is even at 5-5

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for FC Utrecht

Key Players

Dani de Wit impresses in midfield with 7 season goals and an average rating of 7.04

Niklas Vesterlund recently showed rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

For AZ, Mexx Meerdink is a key attacker with 5 season goals and stable form

Goalkeepers

Vasilios Barkas has played 35 matches this season, securing 9 clean sheets

For the visitors, Jari De Busser averages a rating of 7.75 at Stadion Galgenwaard according to the dataset

Both defensive units have benefited from 9 clean sheets recorded by their respective teams this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Stadion Galgenwaard

Recent home games here have seen an average of 3.2 goals per match

FC Utrecht concedes only 0.71 goals on average at home, highlighting their strong home advantage

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