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Eredivisie

Willem II - NEC Nijmegen

08/15/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Willem II
1.3
Total xG
2.9
NEC Nijmegen
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WINN

Willem II

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Full strength squad available

NEC Nijmegen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (1.5 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.22
Sami Ouaissa not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
Noé Lebreton on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Philippe Sandler not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen with Brayann Pereira: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a 41% win probability for the visitors
  • NEC Nijmegen averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches showing high offensive threat
  • Willem II scored a total of 5 goals against Nijmegen in the past 2 head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
  • Sami Ouaissa, Noé Lebreton, Philippe Sandler are missing for the visitors, leaving only 60% of goal threat available
  • NEC Nijmegen conceded an average of 1.75 goals per away match last season
  • Willem II averaged only 1.0 shots on target in their last match
Overview

Willem II host NEC Nijmegen at Koning Willem II Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 15, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams look for their first seasonal win after opening day defeats

Willem II sit in 17th place after a 1-4 opening loss

NEC Nijmegen occupy 13th position after their initial defeat

Form

Willem II started the season with an L loss against Go Ahead Eagles

The form string across all competitions is L

NEC Nijmegen show a form trend of LWDLW

The visitors recently recorded a 2-1 win over Olympiacos F.C.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Willem II conceded 4 goals in their only league game so far

The hosts average 1.0 goals scored per game

NEC Nijmegen scored an average of 2.26 goals per match in the previous campaign

The visitors conceded an average of 1.75 goals per away game

NEC Nijmegen recorded only 1 clean sheet in away matches last season

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in recent history

Willem II secured one win while NEC Nijmegen are without a victory in head-to-head duels

The last encounter on May 3, 2025 ended in a 1-1 draw

Willem II scored 5 goals and conceded 2 in these direct games

The historical home record favors the hosts

Key Players

Bryan Linssen scored 11 goals and provided 7 assists in the season with a rating of 7.01

Tjaronn Chery contributed 10 goals and 6 assists showing a stable form trend

Darko Nejasmic scored four times this season and delivers stable performances in midfield

Goalkeepers

Karst de Leeuw starts in goal for Willem II

Gonzalo Crettaz guarded the visitors' goal 31 times during the season with a rating of 6.84

Crettaz shows a declining form trend over his recent performances

NEC Nijmegen achieved 5 clean sheets in total last season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Koning Willem II Stadion

The hosts conceded 4 goals in their first away game of the season

NEC Nijmegen scored an average of 2.25 goals and conceded 1.75 per away match

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