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Eredivisie

Excelsior - PSV

08/15/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Excelsior
1.3
Total xG
3.0
PSV
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
EXCPSV

Excelsior

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.55
Rising form (3.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.55
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.38
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.34
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.18
Noah Naujoks on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Gyan de Regt on the bench (3 goals, 7 assists)
Derensili Sanches Fernandes not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Arthur Zagré not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Emil Hansson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

PSV

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.31
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.09
Esmir Bajraktarevic not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Yarek Gasiorowski not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Kiliann Sildillia not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (2 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.59
+0.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    PSV with Yarek Gasiorowski: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    PSV: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    PSV: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 8 games)

  • 5
    Excelsior: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Critical shortage for Excelsior: Only 30% of the goal threat is available, without Noah Naujoks, Gyan de Regt, Derensili Sanches Fernandes, Arthur Zagré, and Emil Hansson
  • Model prediction favors visitors: Mathematical analysis calculates a 43% probability for a PSV win with 1.63 expected goals
  • Offensive strength of PSV: The visitors averaged 2.97 goals per game last season and recently averaged 7.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Excelsior conceded an average of 1.65 goals per game last season
  • Artificial turf record: Excelsior won only two out of ten games on this surface
Overview

Excelsior host PSV at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie matchday two on August 15, 2026, 8:00 PM

Excelsior started the season in first place with three points

PSV sit in tenth place with one point

Form

Excelsior show strong form with four wins and one draw

Last match was a clear 4-0 away victory against Cambuur

PSV are also unbeaten with three wins and two draws

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Fortuna Sittard

Form codes: Excelsior WWDWW, PSV WDWWD

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Excelsior scored an average of 1.26 goals and conceded 1.65 last season

PSV impressed offensively with an average of 2.97 goals per game

Away from home PSV scored an average of 3.07 goals

At home Excelsior averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in history

PSV won both matches with a goal difference of 7:2

The last encounter ended 5-1 in favor of PSV

Key Players

Irakli Yegoian scored 5 goals for Excelsior this season

Ricardo Pepi is PSV's top scorer with 16 goals

Ivan Perišić contributed 7 goals and 12 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Stijn van Gassel played 32 matches in goal for Excelsior

Matej Kovar made 31 appearances for PSV

Excelsior kept 6 clean sheets last season while PSV kept 7

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Excelsior's record on artificial turf is 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses

PSV recorded 4 wins and 2 losses on artificial turf

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

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