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Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag - FC Groningen

08/16/2026, 10:15 AM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
ADO Den Haag
1.4
Total xG
3.0
FC Groningen
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ADHFG

ADO Den Haag

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Full strength squad available

FC Groningen

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.54
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Younes Taha not in squad (5 goals, 9 assists)
Marco Rente not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Dies Janse not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marvin Peersman not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    FC Groningen: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    FC Groningen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Groningen with Travis Hernes: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

27%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Groningen averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, whereas Den Haag recorded zero shots on target in their last game
  • Form trend: Groningen started the new season with a win and won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Den Haag started with a defeat
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a slight favorite role for the visitors with an away win probability of 39%
Risk Factors
  • FC Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match
  • ADO Den Haag averaged 0.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • FC Groningen have a mixed record on artificial turf with 3 defeats in 7 matches
Overview

ADO Den Haag host FC Groningen at the WerkTalent Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 16, 2026, 11:15 AM

Groningen are in 9th place with 3 points, Den Haag in 14th with 0 points

The visitors enter the match in a slightly better position

Form

ADO Den Haag lost their only match of the season 0-2 against AZ

Form of ADO Den Haag: L

FC Groningen started their season with a 2-1 win against FC Utrecht

Form of FC Groningen: LWWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Groningen scored an average of 1.4 goals per match last season

The visitors conceded an average of 1.81 goals per away game

Den Haag failed to score in their opening league match

The mathematical prediction expects a close game with a slight advantage for the visitors (39% win probability)

Key Players

Jan Zamburek (Midfielder), Yannick Eduardo (Attacker), and Sekou Sylla (Defender) start for Den Haag

For Groningen, Thom van Bergen (9 goals, 4 assists) and Brynjólfur Willumsson (6 goals) are key in attack

Tygo Land strengthens the visitors' midfield with 3 goals this season

Not selected for Groningen: Younes Taha (5 goals, 9 assists), Marco Rente (3 goals, 4 assists), Dies Janse (2 goals, 2 assists), and Marvin Peersman (3 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Kilian Nikièma is in goal for ADO Den Haag and is still waiting for his first clean sheet

Etienne Vaessen plays in goal for Groningen, keeping 10 clean sheets last season

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the WerkTalent Stadion

Groningen have a balanced record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses on this surface

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