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Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles - ADO Den Haag

08/23/2026, 10:15 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Go Ahead Eagles
1.7
Total xG
3.6
ADO Den Haag
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
GAEADH

Go Ahead Eagles

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Jakob Breum not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

ADO Den Haag

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+0.98
+0.98
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Go Ahead Eagles: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Go Ahead Eagles with Dean James: 1 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Go Ahead Eagles: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Go Ahead Eagles: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

24%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model surprisingly predicts a 44% win probability for the underdog ADO Den Haag compared to 32% for the hosts
  • Go Ahead Eagles averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, while ADO Den Haag averaged only 2.0 shots on target
  • Go Ahead Eagles are offensively strong, currently averaging 2.0 goals per game compared to their seasonal average of 1.6
Risk Factors
  • ADO Den Haag are highly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game this season
  • ADO Den Haag's lack of offensive threat is evident from averaging just 2.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

Go Ahead Eagles host ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie match on August 23, 2026, 12:15 PM

The hosts currently occupy 3rd place with 4 points, while the visitors are in 16th place with 0 points

ADO Den Haag are searching for their first points of the season after two consecutive losses

Form

Go Ahead Eagles show a form of DLLWD with one win and two draws (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently, the Eagles drew 2-2 against Feyenoord

ADO Den Haag started their campaign with two losses (Form LL)

The visitors recently suffered a 1-4 defeat against FC Groningen

Statistics

Go Ahead Eagles score an average of 1.62 goals at home and concede 1.14 goals

The Eagles achieved 9 clean sheets in this season's overall matches

ADO Den Haag scored only once in 2 matches and conceded an average of 3.0 goals

The stadium De Adelaarshorst averaged 4.2 goals per game in recent matches

Key Players

Mathis Suray scored 12 goals and provided 2 assists this season with a 6.87 rating

Victor Edvardsen contributed 4 goals and 7 assists with a 6.83 rating

Søren Tengstedt scored 4 goals so far

Not in squad: Jakob Breum (6 goals, 5 assists) and Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson (3 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Kjetil Haug is in goal for the home side, which kept 9 clean sheets this season

Kilian Nikièma guards the net for the visitors, who are yet to record a clean sheet

Influences

De Adelaarshorst features a natural grass surface

The Eagles' home advantage is highlighted by averaging 1.62 home goals scored

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of the matches at this venue

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