🇳🇱

Eredivisie

PSV - FC Groningen

08/23/2026, 12:30 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
PSV
2.0
Total xG
3.0
FC Groningen
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PSVFG

PSV

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+0.60
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.08
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.02
Paul Wanner on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Yarek Gasiorowski on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Kiliann Sildillia on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

FC Groningen

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.32
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Marco Rente on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Dies Janse not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Marvin Peersman not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+0.98
+0.98
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    PSV: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    FC Groningen: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    FC Groningen with Dies Janse: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical favor: The model estimates a 59% probability of a home win for PSV
  • Tactical dominance: PSV recently averaged 6.6 shots on target with 59.4% possession
  • Historical edge: PSV won all of the last 4 direct meetings against FC Groningen
Risk Factors
  • Away defense issues: Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match
  • Defensive rotation for visitors: Key defenders Marvin Peersman, Marco Rente, and Dies Janse are not nominated
  • Squad changes for PSV: Key assets Paul Wanner, Yarek Gasiorowski, and Kiliann Sildillia are missing from the lineup
Overview

PSV (6th place, 4 points) host FC Groningen (2nd place, 6 points) at the Philips Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 23, 2026, 2:30 PM

An early top-tier clash with Groningen aiming to keep their perfect record

Form

PSV present stable form with 3 wins and 2 draws (DWWDW)

FC Groningen started strong with two consecutive wins (WWLWW, 4 wins, 1 loss)

The visitors display a highly positive recent trend

Statistics

PSV averaged 2.97 goals scored per game this season

FC Groningen scored 1.38 goals on the road but conceded 1.81 on average

PSV's home record shows massive attacking output with average 2.9 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent history

PSV dominated heavily with 4 wins and a 14:4 goal record

The last meeting on February 8, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home win for PSV

Key Players

Ricardo Pepi (16 goals) and Ivan Perišić (7 goals, 12 assists) lead the PSV attack

Mauro Júnior contributed 9 assists in the current campaign

For Groningen, Thom van Bergen (9 goals, 4 assists) and Brynjólfur Willumsson (6 goals) are key

Goalkeepers

Matej Kovar guards the PSV goal with 7 clean sheets this season

Groningen's Etienne Vaessen kept 10 clean sheets in his campaign

Influences

PSV benefit from a strong home record, scoring 2.9 goals per home match

The Philips Stadion historically featured high-scoring games with average 5.2 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.