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Eredivisie

FC Twente - Telstar

09/09/2026, 04:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Twente
2.5
Total xG
3.4
Telstar
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

1:1

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FTTEL

FC Twente

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+1.02
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.12
Marko Pjaca on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Telstar

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-1.95
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
15% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.60
+1.60
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Telstar: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Twente: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Telstar: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

72%

Draw

18%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

28%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged 62% possession and 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Telstar away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 72% home win probability and 2.54 expected goals for Twente
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Historical draw trend: Both previous head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
  • Defensive vulnerability for Telstar with an average of 2.20 goals conceded in recent games
Overview

FC Twente host Telstar at De Grolsch Veste

Eredivisie match on September 9, 2026, 6:45 PM

FC Twente in 8th place (7 points) face Telstar in 14th place (4 points)

Clear favorites tag for the home team

Form

FC Twente with form WLWWD, recently a 2-2 draw against FC Groningen

Last matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss

Telstar with form WWLLD, recently a 2-2 draw against SC Cambuur

Last matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Twente score avg 1.74 goals and concede avg 1.18 goals

At home Twente concede only avg 0.94 goals

Telstar score avg 1.44 goals and concede avg 1.62 goals

Away from home Telstar concede avg 2.25 goals

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

Both matches ended in a draw

Goal difference balanced at 1-1

Last match on February 15, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Daan Rots records 9 goals and 4 assists this season

Sondre Ørjasæter with 3 goals and 6 assists

Bart van Rooij scores 3 goals and provides 5 assists

Jeff Hardeveld leads Telstar with 6 goals and 7 assists

Patrick Brouwer scores 7 goals and delivers 6 assists

Nils Rossen contributes with 3 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Lars Unnerstall for FC Twente with 8 clean sheets recorded

Ronald Koeman Jr. for Telstar with 5 clean sheets recorded

Influences

Home advantage for FC Twente on grass surface

Stadium stats show avg 3.6 goals per game with an Over 2.5 rate of 80%

Twente scored 29 goals in 17 home matches

Telstar conceded 27 goals in 12 away matches

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