Match report →
FC Twente – Telstar1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
2.54
Total xG
3.43
Telstar
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −1.95 | |
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.60 | +1.60 |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +1.02 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Marko Pjaca on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged 62% possession and 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Telstar away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 72% home win probability and 2.54 expected goals for Twente
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Historical draw trend: Both previous head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
- Defensive vulnerability for Telstar with an average of 2.20 goals conceded in recent games
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente72%
Draw18%
Telstar10%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw90%
Telstar or draw28%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Telstar: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Twente: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Telstar: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · Telstar 3-4-2-1
FC Twente
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 38 M. Bruns
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 3 G. Alders
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 16 J. Drommel
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 42 A. Martha
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →