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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - PEC Zwolle

08/22/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
2.6
Total xG
3.5
PEC Zwolle
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

8%

4:0

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SHPZ

SC Heerenveen

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+1.58
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.19
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-1.34
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Sherel Floranus not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Odysseus Velanas on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Zico Buurmeester not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match)
+0.92
+0.92
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PEC Zwolle with Anselmo García MacNulty: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SC Heerenveen with Hristiyan Petrov: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    PEC Zwolle: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

72%

Draw

18%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

28%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • A home win probability of 72% and 2.61 expected home goals highlight Heerenveen's advantage
  • SC Heerenveen averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to PEC Zwolle's average of 2.8
  • PEC Zwolle lacks their usual attacking strength, as only 74% of their goals share is available without Sherel Floranus, Odysseus Velanas, and Zico Buurmeester
Risk Factors
  • Defensive instability: PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 2.78 goals per away game
  • Struggling offenses: Both sides have seen their goal production stall recently (Heerenveen scoring 1.3 vs 1.7 average, Zwolle scoring 0.8 vs 1.3 average)
Overview

SC Heerenveen (7th place, 4 points) host PEC Zwolle (15th place, 0 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 22, 2026, 9:00 PM

Clear favorites role for the home side in this match-up

Form

Heerenveen with form LDLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently recorded a 2-2 draw against Ajax

Zwolle with form WLLLL and a 1-3 defeat to Twente last time out

The visitors enter on a four-game losing streak

Statistics

Heerenveen scored 59 goals (avg. 1.69) and conceded 56 (avg. 1.60) this season

PEC Zwolle scored 44 goals (avg. 1.29) and conceded 71 (avg. 2.09)

Zwolle struggles defensively on the road, conceding an average of 2.78 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches documented

Balanced record with 1 win each and 2 draws

The last direct meeting ended in a 4-2 victory for Heerenveen

Key Players

Jacob Trenskow recorded 13 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.2

Dylan Vente contributed 8 goals and 3 assists

Koen Kostons leads the visitors with 11 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Bernt Klaverboer holds an average rating of 6.92

Jasper Schendelaar has an average rating of 6.45

Heerenveen secured 5 clean sheets, compared to 6 for Zwolle

Influences

Matches at the Abe Lenstra Stadion averaged 2.4 total goals

3 of the last 5 home games saw over 2.5 goals

Heerenveen scored 1.65 goals per game on home soil

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