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Ajax – Willem II5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
2.17
Total xG
3.70
Willem II
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −1.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.40 | +1.40 |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +1.36 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +1.07 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.95 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | +0.54 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.52 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.52 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Tolu Arokodare on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Ajax offensive superiority: The hosts are currently scoring 3.8 goals on average, higher than their season average of 2.1
- Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 9.8 shots on target with 59% possession in recent matches
- Vulnerable defense of Willem II: The visitors concede an average of 2.8 goals per match and are yet to record a clean sheet this season
Risks
- Tight schedule for Ajax with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Willem II averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches, indicating limited offensive threat
- Away weakness for the visitors with an average of 2.5 goals conceded per away match
All probabilities
Result
Ajax51%
Draw23%
Willem II26%
Double chance
Ajax or draw74%
Willem II or draw49%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · Willem II 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 26 M. Paes
- 2 L. Rosa
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 15 Y. Baas
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 8 J. Brandt
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 10 O. Gloukh
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 22 P. van Loon
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 7 J. Slory
- 9 D. Haen
Substitutes
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 51 C. Setford
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 18 A. Zarrouk
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