🇳🇱

Eredivisie

Ajax - Willem II

09/15/2026, 06:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Ajax
2.2
Total xG
3.7
Willem II
1.5
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AJAWI

Ajax

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+1.36
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.95
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.52
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.52
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap)
+0.12
Tolu Arokodare on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Willem II

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-1.59
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+1.07
Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
+0.54
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap)
-0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.40
+1.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Ajax: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

23%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Ajax offensive superiority: The hosts are currently scoring 3.8 goals on average, higher than their season average of 2.1
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 9.8 shots on target with 59% possession in recent matches
  • Vulnerable defense of Willem II: The visitors concede an average of 2.8 goals per match and are yet to record a clean sheet this season
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule for Ajax with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Willem II averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches, indicating limited offensive threat
  • Away weakness for the visitors with an average of 2.5 goals conceded per away match
Overview

Ajax host Willem II in the Eredivisie

Match at the Johan Cruijff Arena on September 15, 2026, 8:00 PM

Ajax sit in 5th place (10 points), Willem II are 17th (2 points)

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 51%

Form

Ajax display stable form with the form string WWWLW

They recorded 4 wins and 1 defeat recently

Willem II struggle with the form string LLDLD

The visitors are winless in five matches with 3 defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Ajax average 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match

Willem II concede 2.8 goals on average while scoring only 1.0 goal

The visitors have not recorded a single clean sheet this season

Ajax have a home goal record of 35 goals scored and 18 conceded

Head-to-Head

Historical records show 2 wins for Ajax in 2 matches

The goal difference stands at 3:1 in favor of the hosts

The last direct encounter ended in a 2:1 win for Ajax on April 13, 2025

Key Players

Steven Berghuis leads the Ajax attack with a 7.53 rating, 1 goal and 3 assists

Davy Klaassen contributed 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Julian Brandt stabilizes the midfield with 2 goals this season

For the visitors, Devin Haen is the main threat with 3 goals

Calvin Twigt provides stability in midfield with a rating of 7.22

Nathan Tjoe-A-On has recorded 2 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Maarten Paes is in goal for Ajax

Maxime Delanghe guards the net for Willem II with a 6.61 rating

Ajax kept 11 clean sheets overall

Willem II are yet to record a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Johan Cruijff Arena

The venue stats show a high average of 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in all historical matches at this stadium

Ajax had 3 days of rest compared to 4 days for Willem II

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.