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Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam - FC Utrecht

08/22/2026, 04:45 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Sparta Rotterdam
1.9
Total xG
3.5
FC Utrecht
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
SRFU

Sparta Rotterdam

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.33
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.05
Tobias Lauritsen not in squad (12 goals, 5 assists)
Joshua Kitolano not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Teo Quintero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

FC Utrecht

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.60
Gjivai Zechiƫl not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists)
Souffian El Karouani not in squad (3 goals, 12 assists)
Jesper Karlsson not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mike van der Hoorn not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht: 90% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Sparta Rotterdam with Casper Terho: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sparta Rotterdam: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht with SĆ©bastien Haller: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

25%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 40% of the usual attacking threat is available, with Tobias Lauritsen, Joshua Kitolano, and Teo Quintero missing
  • Tactical edge: FC Utrecht averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Sparta Rotterdam's 3.6
  • High-scoring matchup: The mathematical model calculates a 67% probability for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • Gjivai ZechiĆ«l, Souffian El Karouani, Jesper Karlsson, and Mike van der Hoorn are missing for Utrecht, leaving only 69% of the usual attacking threat
  • Away defense issues: Utrecht conceded an average of 2 goals per away game last season
Overview

Sparta Rotterdam (11th place, 3 points) face FC Utrecht (14th place, 0 points)

Eredivisie match on August 22, 2026, 4:45 PM at the Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

The home side aims for their second win while the visitors seek their first points after a tough start

Form

Sparta Rotterdam shows a form of DLLLW with a win in their latest match

FC Utrecht has a form of WWDLL with two consecutive defeats

(Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Sparta scored an avg of 1.18 goals and conceded 1.82 per game last season

FC Utrecht averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per match

Both teams scored in 22 matches involving FC Utrecht last season

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 head-to-head matches have been played recently

Sparta Rotterdam won 2 times, while FC Utrecht secured 1 victory

The last match ended in a 1-0 win for Sparta Rotterdam on January 25, 2026

Key Players

Shunsuke Mito scored 7 goals and provided 3 assists last season

Artem Stepanov has been in good form with 2 goals in his last 4 appearances

Dani de Wit remains a key midfielder with an average rating of 7.04

Goalkeepers

Filip Bednarek starts for the home team and played 2 recent games

Vasilios Barkas played 35 times last season and kept 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Sparta's home record on this surface stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats

Utrecht's away record on artificial turf is 1 win, 3 draws, and 3 defeats

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