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Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior

09/08/2026, 04:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
NEC Nijmegen
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Excelsior
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NNEXC

NEC Nijmegen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.06
Bryan Linssen not in squad (11 goals, 7 assists)
Tjaronn Chery on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists)
Noé Lebreton on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Darko Nejasmic not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Deveron Fonville not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Excelsior

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.70
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-0.81
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.35
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.12
51% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.59
+1.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Excelsior: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

26%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Extreme squad depletion for the hosts: Only 0% of goal-scoring threat available, without Bryan Linssen, Tjaronn Chery, Noé Lebreton, Darko Nejasmic, and Deveron Fonville
  • Offensive strength of the visitors: Excelsior averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Opposing form trends: Excelsior travel with four wins in five matches (WWLWW), while NEC Nijmegen's goal scoring recently slowed down to an average of 1.8 goals
Risk Factors
  • Limited squad depth for Excelsior: Only 56% of their usual starting XI strength is available
  • Short recovery phase: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Away defensive weakness: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
Overview

NEC Nijmegen host Excelsior at the Goffertstadion

Eredivisie match on September 8, 2026, 6:45 PM

NEC Nijmegen sit in 10th place with 6 points

Excelsior arrive in 5th place with 9 points

The home side is favored with a 53% win probability according to the model

Form

NEC Nijmegen show a form of WLLWL over their last matches

Two wins and three defeats recorded recently

The last match ended in a 1-3 loss against Feyenoord

Excelsior are in great shape with a WWLWW run

Four wins from their last five matches boost confidence

Their latest game was a 3-0 win away at Willem II

Statistics

NEC Nijmegen average 2.26 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded this season

At home they score 2.28 and concede 1.39 goals on average

Excelsior score 1.26 and concede 1.65 goals per match this season

Away from home Excelsior concede 1.89 goals per game on average

Historical venue stats show a 100% BTTS rate in 5 analyzed matches

Head-to-Head

Only 2 head-to-head matches are recorded in the database

NEC Nijmegen won both of these encounters

Goal difference stands at 7-0 in favor of the home team

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for NEC Nijmegen on April 4, 2026

Key Players

Dušan Tadić is a key creative threat in attack for the home side

Midfielder Isak Hansen-Aarøen is also a key figure in the lineup

For Excelsior, Irakli Yegoian stands out with 1 goal and 2 assists in recent matches

Rick Meissen stabilizes the away defense and recently scored a goal

Casper Widell is in top form with a 7.16 average rating in recent games

Goalkeepers

Nikolas Polster is expected to start in goal for the home team

Stijn van Gassel protects the net for Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen have kept 5 clean sheets so far this season

Excelsior have achieved 6 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Goffertstadion

The last 5 venue matches averaged 3.4 total goals per game

Home advantage is a factor with NEC Nijmegen scoring 2.28 goals per home game

Both teams face a tight schedule with only 3 days since their last match

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