Match report →
NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
1.78
Total xG
2.83
Excelsior
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.70 | |
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.59 | +1.59 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Bryan Linssen not in squad (11 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Tjaronn Chery on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Noé Lebreton on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Darko Nejasmic not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Deveron Fonville not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 55% available) |
Key factors
- Extreme squad depletion for the hosts: Only 0% of goal-scoring threat available, without Bryan Linssen, Tjaronn Chery, Noé Lebreton, Darko Nejasmic, and Deveron Fonville
- Offensive strength of the visitors: Excelsior averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Opposing form trends: Excelsior travel with four wins in five matches (WWLWW), while NEC Nijmegen's goal scoring recently slowed down to an average of 1.8 goals
Risks
- Limited squad depth for Excelsior: Only 56% of their usual starting XI strength is available
- Short recovery phase: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away defensive weakness: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
NEC Nijmegen53%
Draw26%
Excelsior21%
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw79%
Excelsior or draw47%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 · Excelsior 3-4-3
NEC Nijmegen
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 21 T. Storm
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 18 D. Geiger
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 77 A. Thomas
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 10 D. Tadić
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 15 S. Jansson
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 19 D. Garden
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
Substitutes
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 3 P. Sandler
- 9 T. Chery
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 34 K. Kers
- 38 J. Geneste
- 12 K. Bos
- 7 A. Sliti
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 O. Turay
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