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Eredivisie

SC Cambuur - FC Twente

08/30/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
SC Cambuur
1.3
Total xG
2.9
FC Twente
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SCFT

SC Cambuur

Defensive strength (4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+2.28
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.52
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Full strength squad available

FC Twente

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
Daan Rots on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Twente: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    FC Twente: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

27%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Quality and form gap: FC Twente average 1.95 goals per season, while SC Cambuur have lost all 3 league games, conceding an average of 4.0 goals
  • Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • High-scoring game expected: Mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability of BTTS, favoring Twente with 1.66 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Daan Rots is missing for FC Twente, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Tight schedule for FC Twente with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data availability regarding the player performance statistics of SC Cambuur
Overview

SC Cambuur (18th place, 0 points) face FC Twente (12th place, 3 points)

Eredivisie match on August 30, 2026, 8:00 PM

Cambuur is under pressure at the bottom of the table after a poor start

Form

SC Cambuur lost all 3 league matches so far (Form: LLL)

FC Twente show mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses overall (Form: LDWLW)

Twente enter this fixture following a win in their last match

Statistics

Cambuur score an average of 1.0 goal but concede a massive 4.0 goals per game

FC Twente average 1.95 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per match

Cambuur's defense is highly vulnerable, conceding 4.5 goals per home game

Key Players

For Twente, Bart van Rooij stands out with a 7.23 rating, 3 goals, and 5 assists

Ramiz Zerrouki has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist from midfield (rating 7.15)

Sondre Ørjasæter provides threat with 3 goals and 6 assists (rating 7.05)

Goalkeepers

Thijs Jansen starts in goal for Cambuur, looking for his first clean sheet

Joël Drommel is in goal for Twente, who have kept 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Cambuur have a recovery advantage with 7 days since their last match

Twente face a tight turnaround with only 3 days of rest

The home side has struggled defensively at home, conceding 4.5 goals per match

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