Match report →
SC Cambuur – FC Twente1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
SC Cambuur
1.29
Total xG
2.95
FC Twente
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Cambuur | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +2.28 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Daan Rots on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Quality and form gap: FC Twente average 1.95 goals per season, while SC Cambuur have lost all 3 league games, conceding an average of 4.0 goals
- Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
- High-scoring game expected: Mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability of BTTS, favoring Twente with 1.66 expected goals
Risks
- Daan Rots is missing for FC Twente, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Tight schedule for FC Twente with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data availability regarding the player performance statistics of SC Cambuur
All probabilities
Result
SC Cambuur28%
Draw27%
FC Twente45%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
SC Cambuur or draw55%
FC Twente or draw72%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Twente: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Twente: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 12 games)
Lineups
SC Cambuur 5-4-1 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 23 L. Jetten
- 6 J. Amofa
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 29 I. Henstra
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 8 N. Souren
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 43 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 42 D. Weidmann
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 19 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 9 W. Weghorst
Substitutes
- 2 D. Bouah
- 33 M. Maertens
- 9 S. Vink
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
- 15 F. Kvam
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 21 J. Meijster
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 48 D. Westerhof
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 11 D. Rots
- 12 G. Martinho Peixoto
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 38 M. Bruns
- 26 B. Nagel
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
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