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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - PSV

08/30/2026, 10:15 AM

1 : 6
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
1.3
Total xG
2.7
PSV
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
FUPSV

FC Utrecht

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
22% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

PSV

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)
-0.67
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.24
Paul Wanner on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (2 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.40
+1.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/7 games, last 30)

  • 3
    FC Utrecht with Artem Stepanov starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (15/13 games, last 30)

  • 4
    FC Utrecht: 71% of all goals in the second half (17 of 24, last 12 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    FC Utrecht: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 24)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Tactical contrast: PSV averaged 8.6 shots on target with 61.6% possession in recent matches, while Utrecht focused on counter-attacking
  • Attack power vs home fortress: PSV average an impressive 3.07 away goals per game but encounter Utrecht's stable home defense conceding just 0.71 goals
  • Form dominance: PSV travel unbeaten with a strong WWDWW form curve, while Utrecht had a slow start with only one point so far
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in the recent matches of both teams
  • Starting XI weakened: Paul Wanner is not named in PSV's starting lineup
  • Severe injury concerns for Utrecht with five sidelined players in their squad
Overview

FC Utrecht host PSV at Stadion Galgenwaard

Eredivisie match on August 30, 2026, 12:15 PM

FC Utrecht currently sit in 15th place with 1 point

PSV arrive in 2nd place with 7 points

The mathematical model predicts a close match with an away win probability of 36% and home win at 35%

Form

Utrecht's form is inconsistent with WDLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a 3-3 draw against Sparta Rotterdam

PSV show a strong form curve of WWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors won their last game 5-1 against FC Groningen

Statistics

Utrecht averaged 1.64 goals scored per game over the season

At home, they concede only 0.71 goals on average while scoring 1.62

PSV average an impressive 3.07 goals per away game

The visitors concede 1.36 goals on average when playing away

PSV scored 101 goals in 34 league games

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 direct meetings, Utrecht failed to secure a win

PSV won 3 matches, with 1 encounter ending in a draw

The last head-to-head match ended in a narrow 4-3 victory for PSV

PSV scored 13 goals in these matches compared to Utrecht's 8

Key Players

Artem Stepanov averages 0.94 goals per 90 minutes in recent games

Dani de Wit contributes with 7 goals and 3 assists

Yoann Cathline has provided 2 assists recently

Ivan PeriÅ”ić has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Ricardo Pepi is the top threat with 16 goals scored

Ryan Flamingo scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Vasilios Barkas is in goal for Utrecht, keeping 6 clean sheets at home and 9 overall

Matej Kovar starts for PSV, recording 5 clean sheets in away matches and 7 overall

Influences

The match is played on grass at Stadion Galgenwaard

Utrecht benefit from solid home defensive stats with only 0.71 goals conceded per game

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.8 goals per game

The both teams to score rate stands at 60% at this stadium

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