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FC Utrecht – PSV1 : 6
Why the model thinks so
FC Utrecht
1.32
Total xG
2.65
PSV
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Utrecht | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.40 | +1.40 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 22% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Paul Wanner on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (2 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical contrast: PSV averaged 8.6 shots on target with 61.6% possession in recent matches, while Utrecht focused on counter-attacking
- Attack power vs home fortress: PSV average an impressive 3.07 away goals per game but encounter Utrecht's stable home defense conceding just 0.71 goals
- Form dominance: PSV travel unbeaten with a strong WWDWW form curve, while Utrecht had a slow start with only one point so far
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in the recent matches of both teams
- Starting XI weakened: Paul Wanner is not named in PSV's starting lineup
- Severe injury concerns for Utrecht with five sidelined players in their squad
All probabilities
Result
FC Utrecht35%
Draw29%
PSV36%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
FC Utrecht or draw64%
PSV or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (16/7 games, last 30)
- FC Utrecht with Artem Stepanov starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (15/13 games, last 30)
- FC Utrecht: 71% of all goals in the second half (17 of 24, last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Utrecht: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (9 of 24)
Lineups
FC Utrecht 3-4-3 · PSV 4-2-3-1
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 2 S. Horemans
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 20 D. de Wit
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 92 A. Zagre
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 9 A. Stepanov
- 10 Y. Cathline
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 24 K. Sano
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 9 R. Pepi
Substitutes
- 25 M. Brouwer
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 14 Z. Iqbal
- 15 A. Blake
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 53 F. Pohl
- 35 V. Plantinga
- 47 E. Chigozie Owen
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 24 J. Schuldes
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 10 P. Wanner
- 1 N. Olij
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 18 F. Kostić
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 41 K. Ngom
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