Match report →
Feyenoord – ADO Den Haag2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Feyenoord
1.87
Total xG
3.45
ADO Den Haag
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Feyenoord | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.28x league average) | −1.83 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.40 | +1.40 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +1.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWWDW), while ADO Den Haag lost all 3 league games (LLL)
- Tactical dominance: Feyenoord averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Squad advantage: Feyenoord have 97% of their goal-scoring threat available, while ADO Den Haag are at 0% active goal production
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: ADO Den Haag conceded 5.0 goals in their only away game this season and average 3.0 goals conceded per match
- Offensive struggles: ADO Den Haag averaged only 2.3 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Goal shortage threat: According to current squad impact data ADO Den Haag have 0% of their goal production active
All probabilities
Result
Feyenoord44%
Draw25%
ADO Den Haag32%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw68%
ADO Den Haag or draw56%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
Lineups
Feyenoord 4-3-3 · ADO Den Haag 4-2-3-1
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 10 L. Valente
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 9 A. Ueda
- 27 G. Diarra
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 2 O. Raterink
- 3 P. Mulder
- 15 M. Hokke
- 18 S. Sylla
- 25 J. Kilo
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 11 E. Rottier
- 27 I. Thomas
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
Substitutes
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 39 L. Bossin
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 49 S. van Persie
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 30 J. Lotomba
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 37 M. Berger
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 4 M. Waem
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 19 L. Reischl
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 23 N. Thiede
- 12 S. Eekhout
- 35 S. Puljhun Bergtop
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