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Eredivisie

Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam

08/29/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Excelsior
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Sparta Rotterdam
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
EXCSR

Excelsior

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.31
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.02
Noah Naujoks not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists)
Gyan de Regt not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists)
Derensili Sanches Fernandes not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Arthur Zagré not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
71% of goal output missing (only 35% available)

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.52
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Ayoni Santos on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.30
+1.30
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 2
    Sparta Rotterdam: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Excelsior: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad shortage for Excelsior: Only 36% of active goal threat available without Noah Naujoks, Gyan de Regt, Derensili Sanches Fernandes, and Arthur Zagré
  • Tactical advantage: Excelsior averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.0 for the visitors
  • Model prediction: The mathematical probability favors a home win at 48%
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive issues: Sparta Rotterdam concede an average of 2.19 goals per away match
  • Home struggles on artificial turf: Excelsior recorded only 2 wins from 10 games on this surface
Overview

Excelsior host Sparta Rotterdam at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 29, 2026, 4:30 PM

Mid-table clash between the 8th and 10th-placed teams

Form

Excelsior show form WDWWL with a loss in their last match

Sparta Rotterdam present form LLLWD and recorded a draw last time out

The hosts secured 3 wins and 1 draw in recent games

Statistics

Excelsior average 1.26 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per season

Sparta Rotterdam average 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

The visitors struggle defensively away from home with 2.19 goals conceded on average

Head-to-Head

Balanced head-to-head record with 1 win for each side

Goal difference of 3:3 from the last 2 direct encounters

The last match ended in a 3-2 away victory for Excelsior

Key Players

Irakli Yegoian stands out for Excelsior with 5 goals and 2 assists

Casper Widell provides defensive stability and has scored 1 goal this season

Shunsuke Mito is Sparta's key threat with 7 goals and 3 assists

Milan Zonneveld has contributed 4 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Stijn van Gassel played 32 matches with an average rating of 7.12

Filip Bednarek heads into the game without any season appearances

Influences

Both teams play their matches on artificial turf

Excelsior's home record on this surface stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses

The historical average at this venue stands at 3.0 goals per game

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