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Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Excelsior
1.54
Total xG
2.55
Sparta Rotterdam
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.52 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Noah Naujoks not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gyan de Regt not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Arthur Zagré not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 71% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Ayoni Santos on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 82% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad shortage for Excelsior: Only 36% of active goal threat available without Noah Naujoks, Gyan de Regt, Derensili Sanches Fernandes, and Arthur Zagré
- Tactical advantage: Excelsior averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.0 for the visitors
- Model prediction: The mathematical probability favors a home win at 48%
Risks
- Away defensive issues: Sparta Rotterdam concede an average of 2.19 goals per away match
- Home struggles on artificial turf: Excelsior recorded only 2 wins from 10 games on this surface
All probabilities
Result
Excelsior48%
Draw29%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Excelsior or draw77%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw52%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Sparta Rotterdam: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Excelsior: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Excelsior 4-3-3 · Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 15 S. Jansson
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 7 A. Sliti
- 19 D. Garden
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 F. Bednarek
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 6 J. Baas
- 8 J. Toornstra
- 7 R. van Cruijsen
- 10 S. Mito
- 11 M. van Bergen
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Substitutes
- 12 K. Bos
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 5 S. Hendrikx
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 40 T. Holla
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 O. Turay
- 19 A. Kostić
- 13 N. Verschuren
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 15 G. Vianello
- 20 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 17 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
- 30 R. Suur
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