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Eredivisie08/28/2026, 06:00 PM

FC Groningen – Fortuna Sittard2 : 3

Why the model thinks so

FC Groningen
2.09
Total xG
3.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFC GroningenFortuna Sittard
Attack weakness (0.43x league average)−1.45
High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)+1.25+1.25
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)−0.24
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)−0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.04
Marco Rente not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Yassin Oukili on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Recent scoring form: Groningen averaged 1.8 goals in recent games, higher than their season average of 1.6
  • Aggressive attack: FC Groningen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per match
  • Defensive home power: Groningen concede only 0.95 goals on average per game on home soil

Risks

  • Away defensive struggles: Fortuna Sittard concede an average of 2.27 goals per away match
  • Key defensive absence: FC Groningen miss important defender Marco Rente due to injury

All probabilities

Result
FC Groningen60%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw83%
Fortuna Sittard or draw40%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%

Most likely scores

1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
2:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  2. Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
  3. Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
  4. Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  5. FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Lineups

FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 ¡ Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2

FC Groningen
  • 1 E. Vaessen
  • 14 J. Schreuders
  • 3 T. Blokzijl
  • 4 M. Csinger
  • 2 W. Prins
  • 18 T. Land
  • 8 T. de Jonge
  • 17 D. van der Werff
  • 26 T. van Bergen
  • 24 P. Clement
  • 9 B. Willumsson
Fortuna Sittard
  • 31 M. Branderhorst
  • 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
  • 23 P. Brittijn
  • 3 R. Guth
  • 28 J. Hubner
  • 8 J. Dahlhaus
  • 52 M. Ihattaren
  • 20 E. Michut
  • 22 S. ’t Zand
  • 9 A. Descotte
  • 25 L. Zeefuik
Substitutes
  • 11 J. Ondrejka
  • 13 L. Ĺ tubljar
  • 19 O. Zawada
  • 7 T. Hearnes
  • 20 N. Eggens
  • 15 E. van der Laan
  • 44 J. Dillema
  • 12 N. Brandis
  • 16 A. Nordin
  • 42 J. Mosselaar
  • 53 J. Hall
  • 1 L. Koopmans
  • 38 Moussa Gbemou
  • 6 S. van Ottele
  • 5 Y. Oukili
  • 36 A. Bah
  • 15 N. de Groot
  • 33 K. Reitmaier
  • 39 G.BĂźyĂźkhan
  • 44 D. Stockbrink

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