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Eredivisie

FC Groningen - Fortuna Sittard

08/28/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
FC Groningen
2.1
Total xG
3.1
Fortuna Sittard
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
FGFS

FC Groningen

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Marco Rente not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-1.45
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Yassin Oukili on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.25
+1.25
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

23%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Recent scoring form: Groningen averaged 1.8 goals in recent games, higher than their season average of 1.6
  • Aggressive attack: FC Groningen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per match
  • Defensive home power: Groningen concede only 0.95 goals on average per game on home soil
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: Fortuna Sittard concede an average of 2.27 goals per away match
  • Key defensive absence: FC Groningen miss important defender Marco Rente due to injury
Overview

FC Groningen (5th place, 6 points) host Fortuna Sittard (8th place, 4 points) at Euroborg

Eredivisie match on August 28, 2026, 8:00 PM

Groningen look to stay close to the top group after their season start

Mathematical prediction calculates a home win probability of 60%

Form

FC Groningen show the form WLWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

They recently suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat against PSV Eindhoven

Fortuna Sittard present the form WLDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

The away side lost their last match 0-2 against AZ Alkmaar

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Groningen score 1.42 goals on average at home and concede only 0.95

Fortuna Sittard struggle defensively away, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per match

At Euroborg, matches average 2.8 total goals

The BTTS rate at this venue stands at 60%

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins each in 4 direct encounters

The goal difference in these matches is exactly 4-4

The last encounter on January 25, 2026, ended in a 2-1 away win for Fortuna Sittard

Key Players

Thom van Bergen leads Groningen's attack with 9 goals and 4 assists

BrynjĂłlfur Willumsson is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

David van der Werff anchors the midfield with a season rating of 6.90

For Fortuna Sittard, Mohamed Ihattaren key playmaker with 6 goals and 10 assists

Philip Brittijn has contributed 4 goals this season

Justin Hubner solidifies the defense with a 6.73 rating

Goalkeepers

Etienne Vaessen is Groningen's goalkeeper with 10 clean sheets and a season rating of 6.81

Mattijs Branderhorst plays for Fortuna Sittard with 3 clean sheets and a 7.00 rating

Influences

Strong home advantage for Groningen with only 0.95 goals conceded per home game

The match will be played on natural grass

The history at Euroborg averages 2.8 total goals per match

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