Match report →
Telstar – Ajax0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Telstar
1.16
Total xG
2.64
Ajax
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −1.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.74 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Sem van Duijn not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Danny Bakker not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tyrese Noslin not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Soufiane Hetli on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guus Offerhaus not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Youri Baas on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive upswing: Telstar currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average, while Ajax averaged 3.0 goals recently
- Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches with 62.4% possession
- Weakened squad: Telstar is missing 5 key players, leaving only 70% of their typical starting lineup threat available
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Ajax enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Artificial turf resistance: Ajax remains unbeaten on artificial turf with 4 wins and 5 draws
- Low offensive output: Telstar averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Telstar28%
Draw29%
Ajax43%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Telstar or draw57%
Ajax or draw72%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Telstar: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Telstar 3-4-2-1 · Ajax 4-4-1-1
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 3 G. Alders
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 9 J. Seedorf
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 36 D. Janse
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 8 J. Brandt
- 99 T. Arokodare
Substitutes
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 18 G. Caschili
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 19 F. Rust
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 15 Y. Baas
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
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