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Eredivisie

Telstar - Ajax

08/30/2026, 02:45 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Telstar
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Ajax
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TELAJA

Telstar

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.07
Sem van Duijn not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Danny Bakker not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Tyrese Noslin not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Soufiane Hetli on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Guus Offerhaus not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Ajax

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.15
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.74
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (3 vs 2 season average)
+0.31
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Youri Baas on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Telstar: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Ajax: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Ajax: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

29%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offensive upswing: Telstar currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average, while Ajax averaged 3.0 goals recently
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches with 62.4% possession
  • Weakened squad: Telstar is missing 5 key players, leaving only 70% of their typical starting lineup threat available
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Ajax enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Artificial turf resistance: Ajax remains unbeaten on artificial turf with 4 wins and 5 draws
  • Low offensive output: Telstar averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Telstar hosts Ajax at the BUKO Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 30, 2026, 4:45 PM

Telstar is currently in 13th place with 3 points, while Ajax sits in 9th place with 4 points

The mathematical prediction favors Ajax with a 43% probability

The expected goals are calculated at 1.16 for Telstar and 1.47 for Ajax

Form

Telstar holds a form of DWWWL, coming off a recent loss

The home side recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Ajax enters with a form of WDDWW after a victory in their last match

The visitors remain undefeated in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws

Statistics

Telstar averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded last season

Ajax averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match

Telstar scores 1.41 goals per home game on average

Ajax concedes 1.41 goals per away game on average

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head encounters are on record

Ajax won both matches with a total goal difference of 5:2

The last meeting on January 11, 2026, ended in a 3:2 away victory for Ajax

Key Players

Jeff Hardeveld anchors the midfield for Telstar with 6 goals and 7 assists

Patrick Brouwer contributed 7 goals and 6 assists this season

Davy Klaassen is in rising form for Ajax with 8 goals and a 7.20 recent rating

Not in lineup for Telstar: Sem van Duijn, Danny Bakker, Tyrese Noslin, Soufiane Hetli, Guus Offerhaus

Not in lineup for Ajax: Youri Baas, Youri Regeer

Goalkeepers

Ronald Koeman Jr. starts in goal for Telstar with a season rating of 7.27

Marc-André ter Stegen features as the goalkeeper for Ajax

Telstar recorded 5 clean sheets last season, while Ajax kept 11 clean sheets

Influences

The BUKO Stadion has a high-scoring history with an average of 3.6 goals per game

The match will be played on artificial turf

Telstar has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses on artificial turf

Ajax is undefeated on artificial turf with 4 wins and 5 draws

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