Match report →
Willem II – SC Heerenveen2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Willem II
1.83
Total xG
3.38
SC Heerenveen
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Willem II | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.40 | +1.40 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.76 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Marcus Linday not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defensive vulnerability: Willem II conceded an average of 4.0 goals in recent matches
- Lack of accuracy: The home side averaged only 1.5 shots on target in recent games
- Offensive pressure: SC Heerenveen averaged a strong 5.4 shots on target in past matches
Risks
- Vulnerable defense: SC Heerenveen concede an average of 2.13 goals per away match
- Limited data availability regarding player form statistics for Willem II
All probabilities
Result
Willem II43%
Draw25%
SC Heerenveen32%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Willem II or draw68%
SC Heerenveen or draw57%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Willem II 4-2-3-1 · SC Heerenveen 4-4-2
Willem II
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 4 J. Hoogma
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 6 C. Twigt
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 7 J. Slory
- 9 D. Haen
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 6 D. Proper
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
- 10 R. Meerveld
Substitutes
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 48 J. van Esdonk
- 40 D. Fernandez Iglesias
- 41 T. Kotte
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 8 L. Brouwers
- 14 L. Smans
- 17 N. Søyset Hopland
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 11 L. Oyen
- 47 K. Schaken
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →