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PEC Zwolle – NEC Nijmegen1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
0.99
Total xG
2.55
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.27 | +1.27 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 12% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Darko Nejasmic not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad weakness: NEC Nijmegen are without Darko Nejasmic (4 goals, 1 assist), leaving them with only 88% of their usual starting strength
- Tactical advantage: NEC Nijmegen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target compared to just 3.2 by PEC Zwolle
- Model prediction: The mathematical simulation suggests an away win for Nijmegen with a probability of 49%
Risks
- Short rest: NEC Nijmegen enters this away fixture with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Stalling attack: PEC Zwolle's goal production has dropped recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their 1.3 season average
- Away defensive struggles: NEC Nijmegen concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle23%
Draw29%
NEC Nijmegen49%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw51%
NEC Nijmegen or draw77%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)
- PEC Zwolle: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1 · NEC Nijmegen 3-4-1-2
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 25 T. Oosting
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 10 K. Kostons
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 21 T. Storm
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 24 D. Fonville
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 10 D. Tadić
- 9 T. Chery
- 30 B. Linssen
Substitutes
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 18 O. Velanas
- 37 G. Wal
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 7 E. Mor
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 2 B. Pereira
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 36 F. Entius
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 34 K. Kers
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