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Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle - NEC Nijmegen

08/29/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
PEC Zwolle
1.0
Total xG
2.5
NEC Nijmegen
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:2

9%

1:2

9%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
PZNN

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.75
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.42
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
12% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

NEC Nijmegen

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.86
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.09
Darko Nejasmic not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.27
+1.27
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)

  • 4
    PEC Zwolle: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

29%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Squad weakness: NEC Nijmegen are without Darko Nejasmic (4 goals, 1 assist), leaving them with only 88% of their usual starting strength
  • Tactical advantage: NEC Nijmegen recently averaged 5.8 shots on target compared to just 3.2 by PEC Zwolle
  • Model prediction: The mathematical simulation suggests an away win for Nijmegen with a probability of 49%
Risk Factors
  • Short rest: NEC Nijmegen enters this away fixture with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Stalling attack: PEC Zwolle's goal production has dropped recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their 1.3 season average
  • Away defensive struggles: NEC Nijmegen concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game this season
Overview

PEC Zwolle (14th place, 3 points) host NEC Nijmegen (11th place, 3 points)

Eredivisie match on August 29, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both sides seek to secure their position in the mid-table

Form

PEC Zwolle comes with a form of LLLLW and won their last match

NEC Nijmegen travels with a form of LWWLL, following two defeats

Zwolle recently secured a 2-0 away victory against SC Heerenveen

Statistics

PEC Zwolle averages 1.29 goals scored and 2.09 conceded this season

NEC Nijmegen scores an average of 2.26 goals and concedes 1.56

Zwolle has a balanced goal difference of 21-21 at home

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

0 home wins for PEC Zwolle, 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, and 1 draw

The last encounter on January 24, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Nijmegen

Key Players

Koen Kostons leads the hosts' attack with 11 season goals

Thijs Oosting is on a rising form trend with 2 assists recently

Tjaronn Chery dictates the visitors' midfield with 10 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Jasper Schendelaar shows rising form for Zwolle with a 7.33 rating

Gonzalo Crettaz starts for Nijmegen with a declining trend

PEC Zwolle has kept 6 clean sheets this season compared to Nijmegen's 5

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf at the MAC³PARK Stadion

Zwolle recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats on artificial turf

Nijmegen travels with a strong record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeat on this surface

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