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Eredivisie

AZ - Go Ahead Eagles

08/29/2026, 04:45 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
AZ
2.5
Total xG
3.4
Go Ahead Eagles
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AZGAE

AZ

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.14
38% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Go Ahead Eagles

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-1.57
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)
-0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.17
StefƔn Ingi Sigurdarson on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.30
+1.30
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: 38% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (8 of 21)

  • 2
    Go Ahead Eagles: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    AZ: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 5
    Go Ahead Eagles with SĆøren Tengstedt starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (11/14 games, last 29)

  • 6
    AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

19%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Offensive dominance: AZ recently averaged 2.4 goals per game and recorded a strong 7.4 shots on target
  • Away defensive issues: Go Ahead Eagles concede a vulnerable average of 2.23 goals in away matches
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 69% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad for the hosts: AZ enters the match with only 63% of their usual starting XI strength due to absences
  • Historical draw tendency: 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches between these teams ended in a draw
  • Absence for the visitors: Go Ahead Eagles will be without the unlisted StefĆ”n Ingi Sigurdarson
Overview

AZ hosts Go Ahead Eagles at the AFAS Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 29, 2026, 6:45 PM

Top-of-the-table clash between league leaders AZ with 9 points and second-placed Go Ahead Eagles with 7 points

The home side enters the match as favorites with a calculated home win probability of 69%

Form

AZ is in excellent shape leading the standings with the form DDWWW

Go Ahead Eagles holds second place with the form LLWDW

The hosts recently secured 3 consecutive wins

The visitors arrive following a win in their last game

Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

AZ scores an average of 1.71 goals per game this season and concedes 1.50

Go Ahead Eagles averages 1.59 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per match

At home AZ averages 1.70 goals scored and only 1.13 goals conceded

The visitors concede an average of 2.23 goals per game on the road

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches AZ won once while 3 ended in a draw

The last encounter on April 23, 2026 ended in a 0-0 draw

The historical goal difference is 7-4 in favor of the home team

Key Players

Mexx Meerdink leads the AZ attack with 5 goals this season

Peer Koopmeiners is a key presence in the hosts' midfield with an average rating of 6.92

SĆøren Tengstedt is in great form for the visitors with 3 goals in his last matches

Mathis Suray is the top scorer for Go Ahead Eagles with 12 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Jari De Busser starts in goal for AZ with his team recording 9 clean sheets this season

Kjetil Haug guards the net for the visitors who also have 9 clean sheets to their name

Influences

Matches at the AFAS Stadion historically average 3.8 goals per game

The home side benefits from a solid defense conceding just 1.13 goals per home match

Go Ahead Eagles averages 1.54 goals in away games

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