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Eredivisie08/29/2026, 04:45 PM

AZ – Go Ahead Eagles5 : 2

Why the model thinks so

AZ
2.47
Total xG
3.45
Go Ahead Eagles
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAZGo Ahead Eagles
Attack weakness (0.48x league average)−1.57
High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)+1.30+1.30
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)−0.43
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)−0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.17
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)+0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)+0.14
38% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
StefĂĄn Ingi Sigurdarson on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Offensive dominance: AZ recently averaged 2.4 goals per game and recorded a strong 7.4 shots on target
  • Away defensive issues: Go Ahead Eagles concede a vulnerable average of 2.23 goals in away matches
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 69% home win probability

Risks

  • Weakened squad for the hosts: AZ enters the match with only 63% of their usual starting XI strength due to absences
  • Historical draw tendency: 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches between these teams ended in a draw
  • Absence for the visitors: Go Ahead Eagles will be without the unlisted StefĂĄn Ingi Sigurdarson

All probabilities

Result
AZ69%
Draw19%
Go Ahead Eagles12%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
AZ or draw88%
Go Ahead Eagles or draw31%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%

Most likely scores

2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
5:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. AZ: 38% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (8 of 21)
  2. Go Ahead Eagles: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  3. AZ: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  4. Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
  5. Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (11/14 games, last 29)
  6. AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Lineups

AZ 4-2-3-1 ¡ Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1

AZ
  • 28 J. De Busser
  • 22 E. Dijkstra
  • 3 W. Goes
  • 4 L. Schouten
  • 5 M. ChĂĄvez GarcĂ­a
  • 21 D. Kwakman
  • 6 P. Koopmeiners
  • 7 W. Pinto Batista
  • 10 K. Smit
  • 11 R. Daal
  • 9 M. Meerdink
Go Ahead Eagles
  • 1 C. Haug
  • 2 A. Sampsted
  • 26 J. Dirksen
  • 4 J. Kramer
  • 5 D. James
  • 8 E. Linthorst
  • 21 M. Meulensteen
  • 10 S. Tengstedt
  • 16 V. Edvardsen
  • 17 M. Suray
  • 29 E. Hovden Flataker
Substitutes
  • 20 A. Natali
  • 34 M. De Wit
  • 24 A. Oufkir
  • 19 J. Hornkamp
  • 2 S. Maikuma
  • 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
  • 8 J. Clasie
  • 14 C. Stengs
  • 71 I. Ka
  • 31 R. Ichihara
  • 45 BendegĂşz KovĂĄcs
  • 75 H. de Wit
  • 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
  • 32 O. Boakye
  • 11 O. Sivertsen
  • 23 T. Baeten
  • 18 R. Margaret
  • 35 T. Lantveld
  • 33 N. Verdoni
  • 20 E. Waayers
  • 31 Dani Tijman
  • 9 S. Sigurdarson
  • 6 T. Jukić
  • 30 T. Hulleman

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