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Eredivisie

FC Groningen - FC Twente

09/06/2026, 10:15 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Groningen
1.5
Total xG
3.1
FC Twente
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FGFT

FC Groningen

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Full strength squad available

FC Twente

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average)
+0.24
Daan Rots on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    FC Groningen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    FC Twente: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

26%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • FC Twente averaged a strong 9.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • FC Twente is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals per match) than their season average of 2.0
  • Historical advantage for the visitors, as Groningen failed to win any of the last 4 direct duels
Risk Factors
  • Daan Rots is missing for Twente, leaving them with only 74% of their usual starting lineup strength
  • Restricted data availability regarding expected goals (xgFor) in recent away matches
Overview

FC Groningen host FC Twente in the Eredivisie

Match on September 6, 2026, 11:15 AM at the Euroborg

The mathematical prediction calculates 1.48 goals for Groningen and 1.66 for the visitors

A clash of table neighbors with Groningen in 10th place and Twente in 8th place, both with 6 points

Form

Form FC Groningen: LWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Form FC Twente: DWLWW

FC Groningen recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent overall form

FC Twente registered 3 wins and 1 draw alongside 1 loss in their recent matches

FC Groningen currently scores more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average

Statistics

FC Groningen average 1.4 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game

FC Twente average 1.74 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded

At home, Groningen concede only 0.95 goals per match on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches overall

FC Twente dominates the historical balance with 2 wins and 2 draws

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-1 away victory for Twente

Key Players

Thom van Bergen has registered 9 goals and 4 assists this season

Brynjólfur Willumsson has scored 6 goals for the hosts

Marko Pjaca shows a rising form trend with a 7.35 average rating in recent matches for Twente

Goalkeepers

Etienne Vaessen is the goalkeeper for Groningen with a season average rating of 6.81

Lars Unnerstall is in goal for Twente, keeping 8 clean sheets this season

Vaessen has achieved 10 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Euroborg

Venue history at Euroborg shows an average of 3.2 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of these venue matches

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