Match report →
FC Groningen – FC Twente2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Groningen
1.48
Total xG
3.14
FC Twente
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Groningen | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Daan Rots on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- FC Twente averaged a strong 9.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- FC Twente is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals per match) than their season average of 2.0
- Historical advantage for the visitors, as Groningen failed to win any of the last 4 direct duels
Risks
- Daan Rots is missing for Twente, leaving them with only 74% of their usual starting lineup strength
- Restricted data availability regarding expected goals (xgFor) in recent away matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Groningen33%
Draw26%
FC Twente41%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw59%
FC Twente or draw67%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Twente: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- FC Twente: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 4 M. Csinger
- 2 W. Prins
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 18 T. Land
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 24 P. Clement
- 9 B. Willumsson
FC Twente
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 38 M. Bruns
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Substitutes
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 7 T. Hearnes
- 20 N. Eggens
- 15 E. van der Laan
- 44 J. Dillema
- 12 N. Brandis
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 P. Boevink
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 16 J. Drommel
- 11 D. Rots
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
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