Match report →
Telstar – SC Cambuur2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Telstar
1.43
Total xG
3.21
SC Cambuur
1.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Telstar | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.64 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Soufiane Hetli not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Telstar currently scores more frequently at 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
- SC Cambuur suffer from severe defensive issues, conceding 4.0 goals per game on average
- Telstar are missing Soufiane Hetli, reducing their attacking threat by 19%
Risks
- Cambuur's away weakness with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per away game
- Telstar recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Limited data regarding away player forms and head-to-head records
All probabilities
Result
Telstar30%
Draw26%
SC Cambuur45%
Double chance
Telstar or draw55%
SC Cambuur or draw70%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Telstar: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Telstar 3-4-2-1 · SC Cambuur 4-2-3-1
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 3 G. Alders
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 6 J. Amofa
- 8 N. Souren
- 15 F. Kvam
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
Substitutes
- 42 A. Martha
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 33 M. Maertens
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 9 S. Vink
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 30 J. Ceka
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