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SC Heerenveen – AZ2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
1.71
Total xG
3.09
AZ
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −1.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Marcus Linday not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kees Smit on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Form advantage: AZ enters on a four-game winning streak while Heerenveen struggles with negative form
- High-scoring expectation: The model estimates a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Kees Smit is missing for AZ, leaving only 66% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
- Away defensive weakness: AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals per game on the road
- Home offensive threat: The model estimates 1.71 expected goals for SC Heerenveen
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen44%
Draw26%
AZ30%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw70%
AZ or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- AZ: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (9 of 26)
- AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- AZ: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 · AZ 4-2-3-1
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 6 D. Proper
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 8 J. Clasie
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Substitutes
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 14 L. Smans
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 11 L. Oyen
- 49 A. Bouziane
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
- 17 R. Uldriķis
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 20 A. Natali
- 34 M. De Wit
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 19 J. Hornkamp
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 14 C. Stengs
- 71 I. Ka
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 75 H. de Wit
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