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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - AZ

09/06/2026, 12:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
1.7
Total xG
3.1
AZ
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SHAZ

SC Heerenveen

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.01
Marcus Linday not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

AZ

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-1.40
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.36
Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average)
+0.36
Kees Smit on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    AZ: 35% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (9 of 26)

  • 4
    AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 5
    AZ: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

26%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Form advantage: AZ enters on a four-game winning streak while Heerenveen struggles with negative form
  • High-scoring expectation: The model estimates a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Kees Smit is missing for AZ, leaving only 66% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
  • Away defensive weakness: AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals per game on the road
  • Home offensive threat: The model estimates 1.71 expected goals for SC Heerenveen
Overview

SC Heerenveen (12th place, 5 points) hosts AZ (2nd place, 12 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 6, 2026, 2:30 PM

Second-placed AZ travels as favorites to face the 12th-placed hosts

Form

Heerenveen shows inconsistent form with a LWDLD record

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Willem II

AZ enters in excellent shape with a DWWWW run

The visitors won their last match 5-2 against Go Ahead Eagles

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

SC Heerenveen averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per game this season

In home games, Heerenveen averages 1.65 goals scored and 1.2 conceded

AZ averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match

Away from home, AZ concedes an average of 2.27 goals while scoring 1.73

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2 and AZ won 3

The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 victory for AZ

A total of 8 goals were scored by Heerenveen and 18 by AZ in these games

Key Players

Jacob Trenskow leads the attack with 13 season goals and 5 assists

Dylan Vente has contributed 8 goals and 3 assists this season

Ringo Meerveld recorded 6 goals and 3 assists in midfield

Mexx Meerdink is an active threat upfront with 5 goals and 1 assist

Weslley Patati scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists so far

Mateo ChƔvez shines in defense with 1 season goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Bernt Klaverboer guards Heerenveen's goal, carrying a season average rating of 6.92

Heerenveen has recorded 5 clean sheets so far this season

On the other side, Jari De Busser starts in goal for AZ

AZ has registered a total of 9 clean sheets this term

Influences

Heerenveen plays at home at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on a grass pitch

The historical record at this stadium averages 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the recent home games

The home record stands at 33 goals scored and 24 conceded across 20 matches

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