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Eredivisie

Willem II - Excelsior

09/05/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Willem II
1.3
Total xG
3.1
Excelsior
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WIEXC

Willem II

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.51
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Excelsior

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.68
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.24
Noah Naujoks not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists)
Gyan de Regt not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists)
63% of goal output missing (only 43% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.53
+1.53
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Excelsior: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

26%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model forecasts a 48% probability for an away win for Excelsior
  • Excelsior averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Willem II's 2.7
  • Form gap: Excelsior recorded three wins in their last five matches, while Willem II remain winless this season
Risk Factors
  • Excelsior concede an average of 1.89 goals per away match
  • Noah Naujoks and Gyan de Regt are missing, leaving only 44% of the usual goal threat available
  • Willem II conceded an average of 3.33 goals per game this season
Overview

Willem II host Excelsior at the Koning Willem II Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 5, 2026, 7:00 PM

Willem II sit in 15th place with one point

Excelsior travel as the 8th-placed team with six points

Form

Willem II hold a league form of LLD

The home side recorded one draw and two losses in their last three games

Excelsior show a form of DWWLW

The visitors won three of their last five matches with one draw and one defeat

Statistics

Willem II conceded an average of 3.33 goals per match this season

The hosts scored 1.33 goals per game on average

Excelsior scored an average of 1.26 goals and conceded 1.65 goals per game

The away team average 1.89 goals conceded in away games

Key Players

Calvin Twigt stands out for Willem II with an average rating of 7.8

Devin Haen scored one goal in three appearances at home

Uriƫl van Aalst also contributed one goal in three home games

Excelsior rely on Irakli Yegoian with five goals and two assists this season

Casper Widell secures the defense with a rating of 6.9

Lennard Hartjes scored one goal in 21 season appearances

Goalkeepers

Maxime Delanghe played one home match for Willem II so far

Stijn van Gassel made 32 appearances for Excelsior with a 7.12 rating

Neither team has managed to keep a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Koning Willem II Stadion

Willem II's home games averaged 4.5 goals in their two matches so far

Both home games featured both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals

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