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Willem II – Excelsior0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Willem II
1.27
Total xG
3.06
Excelsior
1.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Willem II | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.53 | +1.53 |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.51 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Noah Naujoks not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gyan de Regt not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical model forecasts a 48% probability for an away win for Excelsior
- Excelsior averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Willem II's 2.7
- Form gap: Excelsior recorded three wins in their last five matches, while Willem II remain winless this season
Risks
- Excelsior concede an average of 1.89 goals per away match
- Noah Naujoks and Gyan de Regt are missing, leaving only 44% of the usual goal threat available
- Willem II conceded an average of 3.33 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Willem II26%
Draw26%
Excelsior48%
Double chance
Willem II or draw52%
Excelsior or draw74%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Willem II 4-2-3-1 · Excelsior 5-4-1
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 6 C. Twigt
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 7 J. Slory
- 9 D. Haen
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 15 S. Jansson
- 7 A. Sliti
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
- 19 D. Garden
Substitutes
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 23 M. Dekker
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 12 K. Bos
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 40 T. Holla
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 O. Turay
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