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Sparta Rotterdam – PEC Zwolle2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Rotterdam
1.64
Total xG
2.78
PEC Zwolle
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.39x league average) | −1.60 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.53 | +1.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Ayoni Santos not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Y. Namli not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive surge: Sparta Rotterdam averages more goals recently (1.8) compared to their season average (1.3)
- Struggling visitors: PEC Zwolle's attack is currently stalling, averaging only 0.8 goals per match recently
- Home advantage and predictions: The model estimates a 75% probability for a home win or draw scenario
Risks
- Defensive struggles on the road: PEC Zwolle concede an average of 2.78 goals per away match
- Historical disadvantage: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against PEC Zwolle
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Rotterdam48%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle25%
Double chance
Sparta Rotterdam or draw75%
PEC Zwolle or draw52%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 · PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 6 J. Baas
- 8 C. Hatenboer
- 7 C. Terho
- 10 S. Mito
- 11 M. van Bergen
- 9 M. Zonneveld
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 25 T. Oosting
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 10 K. Kostons
Substitutes
- 19 A. Kostić
- 13 N. Verschuren
- 18 J. Toornstra
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 21 I. Babadi
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 12 B. Reith
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 38 G. Renwarin
- 41 D. Verduin
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 18 O. Velanas
- 37 G. Wal
- 9 E. Sørensen
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