Match report →
NEC Nijmegen – Feyenoord1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
1.45
Total xG
2.87
Feyenoord
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.53 | +1.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Deveron Fonville on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ayase Ueda not in squad (25 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Anis Hadj Moussa on the bench (11 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 81% of goal output missing (only 36% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 36% of the goal threat available for Feyenoord, without Ayase Ueda and Anis Hadj Moussa
- Feyenoord averaged 7.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Head-to-head history favors Nijmegen with one win and zero losses in the last 4 clashes
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
- Numerous injured defenders on both sides weaken the defensive formations
All probabilities
Result
NEC Nijmegen37%
Draw28%
Feyenoord35%
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw65%
Feyenoord or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 17 total)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-1-2 · Feyenoord 4-3-3
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 21 T. Storm
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 10 D. Tadić
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 9 T. Chery
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 30 B. Linssen
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 27 G. Diarra
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Substitutes
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 18 D. Geiger
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 34 K. Kers
- 77 A. Thomas
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 38 J. Geneste
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 39 L. Bossin
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 49 S. van Persie
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →