🇳🇱

Eredivisie

Ajax - PSV

09/05/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Ajax
1.5
Total xG
3.1
PSV
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AJAPSV

Ajax

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.41
Rising form (3.4 vs 2 season average)
+0.41
Attack strength (1.42x league average)
-0.34
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.24
Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

PSV

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-0.89
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (4 vs 2.9 season average)
+0.34
Paul Wanner on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ryan Flamingo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (2 vs 2.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.53
+1.53
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Ajax: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/7 games, last 30)

  • 4
    PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 5
    Ajax: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Ajax: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (11 of 33)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

27%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Ajax averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to PSV's average of 9.4 shots on target
  • PSV is scoring more frequently in recent matches (4.0 goals) compared to their season average (2.9 goals)
  • The mathematical model calculates a high BTTS probability of 64% and over 2.5 goals at 60%
Risk Factors
  • PSV is missing key squad depth due to injuries, leaving only 86% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available
  • Restricted data availability regarding goalkeeper statistics for the home team Ajax in the provided dataset
Overview

Ajax (4th place, 7 points) host PSV (2nd place, 10 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena

Eredivisie match on September 5, 2026, 8:00 PM

Top clash in the battle for the league lead

Form

Ajax holds a form of DDWWW with 3 consecutive wins in recent games

PSV arrives with a form of WDWWW and also recorded 3 consecutive wins

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Ajax scores avg. 1.81 goals and concedes avg. 1.17 goals per match this season

In home games, Ajax scores avg. 1.84 goals and concedes avg. 0.95 goals

PSV excels offensively with avg. 2.97 goals scored and avg. 1.32 goals conceded

On the road, PSV averages 3.07 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Ajax achieved 2 wins while PSV recorded 0 wins and 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 9:6 in favor of Ajax

The last encounter on May 2, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Steven Berghuis (4 goals, 2 assists in 21 games, 7.33 rating) shows a rising form trend

Davy Klaassen has 8 goals and 2 assists in 31 matches with rising form

Oscar Gloukh contributed 6 goals and 6 assists in 29 appearances

Ivan Perišić excels for PSV with 7 goals, 12 assists in 30 games and rising form

Guus Til boasts 14 goals and 5 assists in 29 appearances

Ricardo Pepi has recorded 16 goals and 1 assist in 26 matches this season

Influences

The match takes place at the Johan Cruijff Arena on grass

The historic goal average at the stadium stands at 4.8 goals per game

In all of the last 5 matches at this venue, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

Ajax concedes only 0.95 goals per game on average at home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.