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Ajax – PSV1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
1.47
Total xG
3.11
PSV
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.53 | +1.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.89 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.9 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paul Wanner on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ryan Flamingo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (2 vs 2.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Ajax averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to PSV's average of 9.4 shots on target
- PSV is scoring more frequently in recent matches (4.0 goals) compared to their season average (2.9 goals)
- The mathematical model calculates a high BTTS probability of 64% and over 2.5 goals at 60%
Risks
- PSV is missing key squad depth due to injuries, leaving only 86% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available
- Restricted data availability regarding goalkeeper statistics for the home team Ajax in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Ajax33%
Draw27%
PSV40%
Double chance
Ajax or draw60%
PSV or draw67%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.2 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/7 games, last 30)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Ajax: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Ajax: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (11 of 33)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · PSV 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 8 J. Brandt
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 10 O. Gloukh
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 24 K. Sano
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 9 R. Pepi
Substitutes
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 2 L. Rosa
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 26 M. Paes
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 10 P. Wanner
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 18 F. Kostić
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 41 K. Ngom
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