Match report →
ADO Den Haag – Fortuna Sittard2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
ADO Den Haag
1.22
Total xG
2.33
Fortuna Sittard
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | ADO Den Haag | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.34x league average) | −1.73 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| Defensive strength (2.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +1.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.31x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.4 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Yassin Oukili on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: ADO Den Haag remains winless in 4 games (LLLD), while Fortuna Sittard enters with momentum from a recent win
- Defensive vulnerability: ADO Den Haag has conceded an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
- Tactical edge: Fortuna Sittard is highly effective on the counter, averaging 4.4 shots on target despite only 32.4% possession
Risks
- Limited data availability on ADO Den Haag's current player form
- Away struggles: Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away match
- Lack of offensive power: According to squad analysis, ADO Den Haag currently has no significant seasonal goal production available
All probabilities
Result
ADO Den Haag37%
Draw32%
Fortuna Sittard31%
Double chance
ADO Den Haag or draw69%
Fortuna Sittard or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
Lineups
ADO Den Haag 4-2-3-1 · Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 2 O. Raterink
- 3 P. Mulder
- 15 M. Hokke
- 18 S. Sylla
- 25 J. Kilo
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 11 E. Rottier
- 27 I. Thomas
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 20 E. Michut
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 9 A. Descotte
- 25 L. Zeefuik
Substitutes
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 20 C. Kramer
- 4 M. Waem
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 19 L. Reischl
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 23 N. Thiede
- 35 S. Puljhun Bergtop
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 5 Y. Oukili
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 44 D. Stockbrink
- 35 K. Burgsteden
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →