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Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag - Fortuna Sittard

09/06/2026, 02:45 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
ADO Den Haag
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Fortuna Sittard
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ADHFS

ADO Den Haag

Defensive strength (2.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+1.12
Attack weakness (0.31x league average)
-0.99
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.58
Full strength squad available

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.34x league average)
-1.73
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.4 league avg)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Yassin Oukili on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: ADO Den Haag remains winless in 4 games (LLLD), while Fortuna Sittard enters with momentum from a recent win
  • Defensive vulnerability: ADO Den Haag has conceded an average of 2.75 goals per game this season
  • Tactical edge: Fortuna Sittard is highly effective on the counter, averaging 4.4 shots on target despite only 32.4% possession
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability on ADO Den Haag's current player form
  • Away struggles: Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away match
  • Lack of offensive power: According to squad analysis, ADO Den Haag currently has no significant seasonal goal production available
Overview

ADO Den Haag (15th place, 1 point) host Fortuna Sittard (7th place, 7 points) at the WerkTalent Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 6, 2026, 4:45 PM

The hosts are searching for their first win of the season

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 37%

Form

ADO Den Haag are winless in four matches with a form of LLLD

Fortuna Sittard enter the game with a form of LDWLW and a win in their last match

The visitors have recorded two wins and one draw so far

Statistics

ADO Den Haag have conceded 11 goals in 4 matches (average 2.75)

Fortuna Sittard have scored 49 goals (average 1.44) and conceded 63 goals in this campaign

The home side has failed to keep a clean sheet this season

Key Players

Kilian NikieĢ€ma stands out in goal with an average rating of 8.24 at home

Mohamed Ihattaren leads the visitors with 6 goals and 10 assists this season

Edouard Michut is in rising form with one goal and two assists in recent matches

Goalkeepers

Kilian NikieĢ€ma guards the goal for the hosts and is still searching for his first clean sheet

Mattijs Branderhorst features for Fortuna Sittard with a season rating of 7

Sittard have recorded 3 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the WerkTalent Stadion

ADO Den Haag lost their only home game on this surface 1-4

Fortuna Sittard have a mixed record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses

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