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Eredivisie

Excelsior - FC Utrecht

09/13/2026, 10:15 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Excelsior
1.6
Total xG
3.2
FC Utrecht
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
EXCFU

Excelsior

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.28
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.07
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.06
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
Simon Janssen on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

FC Utrecht

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.91
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.69
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Yoann Cathline on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.41
+1.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 11 games)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Excelsior: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    FC Utrecht: 10 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht with Artem Stepanov starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

26%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Contrasting form: Excelsior (6th place) meet winless FC Utrecht (16th place)
  • Key offensive figures: Irakli Yegoian with 6 goal involvements for the hosts and Artem Stepanov with 4 goals for the visitors
  • Tactical setup: Excelsior recently played counter-oriented with an average of 5.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive issues: FC Utrecht concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
  • Squad impact for the hosts: Simon Janssen is missing from the lineup leaving Excelsior with 82% of regular starting strength
  • Defensive leakage: Utrecht conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last five matches
Overview

Excelsior host FC Utrecht at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie fixture on September 13, 2026, 12:15 PM

Sixth-placed Excelsior face struggling FC Utrecht currently in 16th position

Form

Excelsior are in good form with a WLWWD run from their recent matches

The hosts recently secured a 2-2 draw away at NEC Nijmegen

FC Utrecht are still winless with a form of LLDLD

The visitors recently recorded a high-scoring 3-3 draw against Go Ahead Eagles

Statistics

Excelsior scored an average of 1.26 goals per game this season

FC Utrecht concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match

The hosts have a goal record of 20-22 in 16 home games

Utrecht scored an average of 1.67 goals across 15 away matches

Head-to-Head

Two direct encounters on record with an even balance of one win each

The last match ended in a decisive 5-0 home victory for Excelsior

A total of 10 goals were scored across these two head-to-head matches

Key Players

Midfielder Irakli Yegoian shines for Excelsior with 2 goals and 4 assists

Attacker David Garden has already scored 3 league goals for the home side

Artem Stepanov stands out for Utrecht with 4 goals in 4 appearances

Goalkeepers

Stijn van Gassel guards the Excelsior goal with an average season rating of 7.12

Vasilios Barkas is in goal for Utrecht and holds a rating of 6.39

Excelsior registered 6 clean sheets this season while Utrecht recorded 9

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Excelsior hold a record of 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats on artificial turf

Utrecht achieved only 1 win alongside 4 draws and 3 defeats on this surface

The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion historically averages 3.0 goals per game

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