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Excelsior – FC Utrecht1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Excelsior
1.63
Total xG
3.25
FC Utrecht
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Excelsior | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.41 | +1.41 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.91 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Simon Janssen on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yoann Cathline on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Contrasting form: Excelsior (6th place) meet winless FC Utrecht (16th place)
- Key offensive figures: Irakli Yegoian with 6 goal involvements for the hosts and Artem Stepanov with 4 goals for the visitors
- Tactical setup: Excelsior recently played counter-oriented with an average of 5.4 shots on target
Risks
- Away defensive issues: FC Utrecht concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Squad impact for the hosts: Simon Janssen is missing from the lineup leaving Excelsior with 82% of regular starting strength
- Defensive leakage: Utrecht conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last five matches
All probabilities
Result
Excelsior37%
Draw26%
FC Utrecht37%
Double chance
Excelsior or draw63%
FC Utrecht or draw63%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Excelsior: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 10 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht with Artem Stepanov starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
Excelsior 4-1-4-1 · FC Utrecht 5-4-1
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 12 K. Bos
- 3 R. Meissen
- 7 A. Sliti
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
- 19 D. Garden
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 92 A. Zagre
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 20 D. de Wit
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 15 A. Blake
- 9 A. Stepanov
Substitutes
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 15 S. Jansson
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 O. Turay
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 18 J. Medić
- 22 S. Padt
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 39 N. Amrabat
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