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PEC Zwolle – Feyenoord0 : 7
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
1.27
Total xG
3.59
Feyenoord
2.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.40 | +1.40 |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Ayase Ueda not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Feyenoord averaged an impressive 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Outstanding record on artificial turf for the visitors with 6 wins from 7 games
- Massive historical dominance with 4 consecutive wins for Feyenoord in recent duels
Risks
- The absence of attacker Ayase Ueda weakens the offensive line of the visitors
- Only 4 days of recovery for Feyenoord after their demanding match against Barcelona
- Defensive struggles of PEC Zwolle conceding an average of 2.09 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle19%
Draw21%
Feyenoord60%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw40%
Feyenoord or draw81%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
6%
2:1
5%
0:7
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- PEC Zwolle: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1 · Feyenoord 4-2-3-1
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 8 T. Sommer
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 18 O. Velanas
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 10 K. Kostons
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Substitutes
- 6 J. Bürger
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 25 T. Oosting
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 37 G. Wal
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 49 S. van Persie
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
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