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Eredivisie

SC Cambuur - NEC Nijmegen

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Cambuur
1.2
Total xG
3.2
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SCNN

SC Cambuur

Defensive strength (3.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+1.93
Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-0.77
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

NEC Nijmegen

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-1.25
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.90
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.43
+1.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    NEC Nijmegen: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)

  • 3
    SC Cambuur: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 5 games)

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

24%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Squad Impact: Only 14% of seasonal goal production is available for NEC Nijmegen due to squad limitations
  • Defensive struggles: SC Cambuur has conceded a high average of 3.6 goals per game so far this season
  • Win probability: The mathematical model predicts an away win for NEC Nijmegen with a 54% probability despite squad issues
Risk Factors
  • Form dip: NEC Nijmegen's goal scoring has slowed down recently to 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
  • Low offensive threat: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in their recent games
  • Limited historical head-to-head data available for this fixture
Overview

SC Cambuur (18th place, 1 point) faces NEC Nijmegen (9th place, 7 points)

Eredivisie match on September 12, 2026, 9:00 PM

The bottom side hosts the ninth-placed team in a crucial league fixture

Form

SC Cambuur is winless in 5 matches with a form of LLLLD

NEC Nijmegen shows a form of LLWLD

Both teams recorded a draw in their most recent fixture

Cambuur has 0 wins and 4 losses while Nijmegen has 1 win and 3 losses in their recent matches

Statistics

SC Cambuur has conceded 18 goals in 5 games with an average of 3.60 per match

At home Cambuur concedes an average of 6.50 goals per match

NEC Nijmegen scored 2.26 goals per game on average this season

The away team conceded 1.56 goals per game on average

Key Players

Rafik El Arguioui scored 4 goals in 5 appearances with a rating of 7.36

Nicolas Binder contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 matches

Tjaronn Chery scored 3 goals in 4 matches with a rating of 7.60

Goalkeepers

Thijs Jansen played 5 matches for Cambuur without securing a clean sheet

Gonzalo Crettaz made 4 appearances for the visitors with a rating of 6.29

Nijmegen recorded 5 clean sheets over the entire season

Influences

Cambuur has struggled heavily at home conceding 13 goals in 2 home matches

The model suggests a high-scoring game with a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals

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