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SC Cambuur – NEC Nijmegen3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Cambuur
1.23
Total xG
3.22
NEC Nijmegen
1.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (3.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +1.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.43 | +1.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −1.25 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.90 | |
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.77 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Only 14% of seasonal goal production is available for NEC Nijmegen due to squad limitations
- Defensive struggles: SC Cambuur has conceded a high average of 3.6 goals per game so far this season
- Win probability: The mathematical model predicts an away win for NEC Nijmegen with a 54% probability despite squad issues
Risks
- Form dip: NEC Nijmegen's goal scoring has slowed down recently to 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
- Low offensive threat: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in their recent games
- Limited historical head-to-head data available for this fixture
All probabilities
Result
SC Cambuur22%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Double chance
SC Cambuur or draw46%
NEC Nijmegen or draw78%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 18 total)
- SC Cambuur: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 5 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
SC Cambuur 4-2-3-1 · NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 33 M. Maertens
- 8 N. Souren
- 15 F. Kvam
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 21 T. Storm
- 3 P. Sandler
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 18 D. Geiger
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 9 T. Chery
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 14 K. Sierhuis
Substitutes
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 6 J. Amofa
- 9 S. Vink
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 21 J. Meijster
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 30 J. Ceka
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 7 E. Mor
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 30 B. Linssen
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 34 K. Kers
- 77 A. Thomas
- 10 D. Tadić
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