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Go Ahead Eagles – FC Groningen1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Go Ahead Eagles
1.71
Total xG
3.54
FC Groningen
1.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −1.64 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.48 | +1.48 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +1.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical attack: Go Ahead Eagles averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- High-scoring venue: De Adelaarshorst matches historically average 3.8 total goals
- Away struggles: FC Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match
Risks
- Critical squad impact: Only 26% of Go Ahead Eagles' season goal production is currently active
- Critical squad impact: Only 20% of FC Groningen's season goal production is currently active
- Defensive worries: Both teams conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Go Ahead Eagles36%
Draw24%
FC Groningen40%
Double chance
Go Ahead Eagles or draw60%
FC Groningen or draw64%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
4%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 29)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1 · FC Groningen 4-2-3-1
Go Ahead Eagles
- 1 C. Haug
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 4 J. Kramer
- 5 D. James
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 16 V. Edvardsen
- 17 M. Suray
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 4 M. Csinger
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 2 W. Prins
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 18 T. Land
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 24 P. Clement
- 9 B. Willumsson
Substitutes
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 23 T. Baeten
- 18 R. Margaret
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 20 E. Waayers
- 27 T. Galvez
- 6 T. Jukić
- 30 T. Hulleman
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 5 M. Rente
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 20 N. Eggens
- 15 E. van der Laan
- 44 J. Dillema
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 P. Boevink
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