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Eredivisie

Go Ahead Eagles - FC Groningen

09/12/2026, 04:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Go Ahead Eagles
1.7
Total xG
3.5
FC Groningen
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

3:1

4%
What influences the xG?
GAEFG

Go Ahead Eagles

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.34
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.13
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.10
Strong home record (2.6 vs 1.7 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

FC Groningen

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-1.64
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+1.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.48
+1.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

  • 2
    Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/12 games, last 29)

  • 3
    Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

24%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Tactical attack: Go Ahead Eagles averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • High-scoring venue: De Adelaarshorst matches historically average 3.8 total goals
  • Away struggles: FC Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 26% of Go Ahead Eagles' season goal production is currently active
  • Critical squad impact: Only 20% of FC Groningen's season goal production is currently active
  • Defensive worries: Both teams conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches
Overview

Go Ahead Eagles host FC Groningen

Eredivisie match on September 12, 2026, 4:45 PM

Mid-table battle between 7th and 10th place

The hosts sit on 8 points, just ahead of the visitors on 7 points

Form

The home side shows a form of WDWLD with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Last match ended in a 3-3 draw against Utrecht

FC Groningen enters with a form of WWLLD, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last game was a 2-2 draw against Twente

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Go Ahead Eagles average 1.59 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per season match

At home, their average stands at 1.62 scored and 1.14 conceded goals

Groningen average 1.4 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game

On the road, Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Go Ahead Eagles hold 2 wins, with Groningen having 0 wins and 2 draws

Goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of the hosts

The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw on April 11, 2026

Key Players

Søren Tengstedt shines in midfield with 4 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.59 rating

Victor Edvardsen has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists with a 7.15 rating

Thom van Bergen leads the visitors with 3 goals, 2 assists, and a strong 7.56 rating

Goalkeepers

Kjetil Haug is in goal for the Eagles, holding an average rating of 6.29

Etienne Vaessen guards Groningen's goal with a 7.13 rating and has already recorded 1 assist

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at De Adelaarshorst

The home venue averages 3.8 goals per game historically

Eagles benefit from home defense, conceding only 1.14 goals per match on average

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