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Fortuna Sittard – Ajax1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Fortuna Sittard
1.26
Total xG
2.80
Ajax
1.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.43 | +1.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −1.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Oscar Gloukh on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Davy Klaassen on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited offensive power for Fortuna Sittard: Only 22% of their seasonal goal production is available in the squad
- Offensively strong Ajax: The visitors recently averaged 8.4 shots on target per match
- Historical dominance: Ajax won all four of their last head-to-head matches against Fortuna Sittard
Risks
- Significant squad impact for Ajax: Oscar Gloukh, Davy Klaassen and Youri Regeer are missing, leaving only 58% of starting lineup strength available
- Defensive instability for Fortuna Sittard, conceding an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
- Fortuna Sittard played very counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging just 32% possession
All probabilities
Result
Fortuna Sittard30%
Draw28%
Ajax42%
Double chance
Fortuna Sittard or draw58%
Ajax or draw70%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Ajax: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
Lineups
Fortuna Sittard 5-4-1 · Ajax 4-3-3
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 20 E. Michut
- 10 O. ter Haar Romeny
- 25 L. Zeefuik
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 15 Y. Baas
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 8 J. Brandt
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 20 O. Edvardsen
Substitutes
- 9 A. Descotte
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 44 D. Stockbrink
- 35 K. Burgsteden
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 2 L. Rosa
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 26 M. Paes
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
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