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Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard - Ajax

09/12/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
Fortuna Sittard
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Ajax
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FSAJA

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-1.07
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.67
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.18
Full strength squad available

Ajax

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.99
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-0.76
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.36
Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average)
+0.36
Oscar Gloukh on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Davy Klaassen on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists)
Youri Regeer not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.43
+1.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Ajax: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Ajax: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Fortuna Sittard: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

28%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Limited offensive power for Fortuna Sittard: Only 22% of their seasonal goal production is available in the squad
  • Offensively strong Ajax: The visitors recently averaged 8.4 shots on target per match
  • Historical dominance: Ajax won all four of their last head-to-head matches against Fortuna Sittard
Risk Factors
  • Significant squad impact for Ajax: Oscar Gloukh, Davy Klaassen and Youri Regeer are missing, leaving only 58% of starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive instability for Fortuna Sittard, conceding an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
  • Fortuna Sittard played very counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging just 32% possession
Overview

Fortuna Sittard hosts Ajax at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 12, 2026, 8:00 PM

Home team currently in 6th place with 10 points, Ajax in 8th with 7 points

Mathematical prediction calculates a 42% away win probability and 1.26 to 1.54 expected goals

Form

Fortuna Sittard holds a DWLWW form in recent matches

The home side recently celebrated two consecutive wins

Ajax enters with a DWWWL form

The visitors lost their last match 1-3 against PSV

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fortuna Sittard scores avg. 1.44 goals and concedes avg. 1.85 this season

Home record stands at avg. 1.47 goals scored and avg. 1.53 conceded

Ajax records avg. 1.81 goals scored and avg. 1.17 conceded

In away matches, Ajax scores avg. 1.76 goals and concedes avg. 1.41

The stadium averages 3.2 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Ajax dominated all 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The goal difference is a clear 14 to 2 in favor of Ajax

Last meeting on February 14, 2026, ended in a 4-1 away victory

Key Players

Mohamed Ihattaren stands out with a 7.31 rating alongside 3 goals and 2 assists

Lequincio Zeefuik contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Steven Berghuis shines with a 7.33 rating, 4 goals and 2 assists

Youri Baas recorded 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.13

Goalkeepers

Mattijs Branderhorst is in goal for Fortuna Sittard, holding a 7.02 rating

Marc-André ter Stegen defends the goal for Ajax

Fortuna Sittard secured 3 clean sheets this season, whereas Ajax recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

The home advantage is visible in Fortuna Sittard's home record of 28 goals scored and 29 conceded

Ajax responds with an away record of 30 goals scored and 24 goals conceded

The match will be played on natural grass at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion

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