Match report →
PSV – Sparta Rotterdam4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
PSV
2.17
Total xG
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.4x league average) | −1.89 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +1.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | +1.20 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Ruben van Bommel on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ivan Perišić on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ricardo Pepi on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Shunsuke Mito not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Nökkvi Thórisson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- PSV averaged 8.2 shots on target with 58% possession in recent matches
- PSV currently score more frequently with 3.4 goals per match recently compared to a 2.8 season average, while Sparta concede 2.19 goals per away game
- PSV dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins, and the model predicts a 50% home win probability with 2.17 expected home goals
Risks
- PSV have only 3 days of rest since their last match, while Sparta Rotterdam had 9 days of preparation
- Not nominated for PSV are key players Ruben van Bommel (2 goals, 2 assists), Ivan Perišić (2 goals, 1 assist), and Ricardo Pepi (3 goals)
- Sparta Rotterdam currently score more frequently with 1.8 goals per match recently compared to a 1.3 season average
All probabilities
Result
PSV50%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Double chance
PSV or draw73%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw50%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- PSV: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- Sparta Rotterdam: 9 of 24 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
PSV 4-3-3 · Sparta Rotterdam 3-4-2-1
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 20 G. Til
- 24 K. Sano
- 10 P. Wanner
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 3 M. Young
- 6 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 2 L. Martes
- 8 J. Baas
- 10 C. Hatenboer
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 7 C. Terho
- 11 M. van Bergen
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Substitutes
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 5 I. Perišić
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 9 R. Pepi
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 18 F. Kostić
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 38 F. Merién
- 19 A. Kostić
- 18 J. Toornstra
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 21 I. Babadi
- 17 R. van Cruijsen
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 12 B. Reith
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