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Eredivisie

PSV - Sparta Rotterdam

09/13/2026, 06:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
PSV
2.2
Total xG
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PSVSR

PSV

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+1.20
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.73
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.10
Ruben van Bommel on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ivan Perišić on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ricardo Pepi on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack weakness (0.4x league average)
-1.89
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+1.36
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Shunsuke Mito not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Nökkvi Thórisson not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.39
+1.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 2
    PSV: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

  • 4
    Sparta Rotterdam: 9 of 24 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

23%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • PSV averaged 8.2 shots on target with 58% possession in recent matches
  • PSV currently score more frequently with 3.4 goals per match recently compared to a 2.8 season average, while Sparta concede 2.19 goals per away game
  • PSV dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins, and the model predicts a 50% home win probability with 2.17 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • PSV have only 3 days of rest since their last match, while Sparta Rotterdam had 9 days of preparation
  • Not nominated for PSV are key players Ruben van Bommel (2 goals, 2 assists), Ivan Perišić (2 goals, 1 assist), and Ricardo Pepi (3 goals)
  • Sparta Rotterdam currently score more frequently with 1.8 goals per match recently compared to a 1.3 season average
Overview

PSV (2nd place, 13 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (12th place, 5 points) at the Philips Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 13, 2026, 8:00 PM

PSV aim for the top of the table with a home win, while Sparta seek mid-table points

Form

PSV are in strong form with a WWWWD record consisting of 4 wins and 1 draw

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Shakhtar Donetsk

Sparta sit at LWDLD with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

They recently drew 2-2 against PEC Zwolle

Statistics

PSV average 2.97 goals scored per game this season

Sparta Rotterdam concede an average of 2.19 goals per away game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 29 of PSV's 34 matches

Head-to-Head

PSV won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches

The goal difference stands at 13-3 in favor of the home side

Their last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for PSV

Key Players

Sergiño Dest shines for PSV with 2 goals and 2 assists (7.94 rating)

Guus Til adds quality in midfield with 2 goals (7.27 rating)

Mauro Júnior has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist (7.28 rating)

Not nominated are Ruben van Bommel, Ivan Perišić, and Ricardo Pepi

Milan Zonneveld leads Sparta's attack with 3 goals and 1 assist (7.41 rating)

Marvin Young impresses in defense with 2 goals (7.12 rating)

Bas Kuipers has provided 2 assists (6.95 rating)

Goalkeepers

Matej Kovar guards the PSV goal with a 6.82 season rating

PSV kept 7 clean sheets this season

Michael Brouwer starts for Sparta (6.64 rating) with 11 clean sheets recorded by the team

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Philips Stadion

PSV benefit from a strong home attack with 58 goals in 20 home games

Historical venue matches show a high average of 5.0 goals per game

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