Match report →
FC Twente – ADO Den Haag2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
2.08
Total xG
3.32
ADO Den Haag
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.15x league average) | −2.11 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.48 | +1.48 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +1.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.77 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Nigel Thomas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive dominance: FC Twente averaged 7.6 shots on target per match with 61% possession in recent games
- Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a home win probability of 56%
- Defensive vulnerability: ADO Den Haag concede a high average of 2.8 goals per match
Risks
- Physical fatigue: FC Twente have a short recovery window with only 3 days since their last match
- Twente squad impact: Only 15% of the usual seasonal goal production is currently available
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head records
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente56%
Draw23%
ADO Den Haag21%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw79%
ADO Den Haag or draw44%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Twente: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · ADO Den Haag 4-4-2
FC Twente
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 38 M. Bruns
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 15 M. Hokke
- 2 O. Raterink
- 25 J. Kilo
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 11 E. Rottier
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 16 J. Drommel
- 11 D. Rots
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 33 M. Šín
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 18 S. Sylla
- 77 D. Bárány
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 19 L. Reischl
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 27 I. Thomas
- 23 N. Thiede
- 35 S. Puljhun Bergtop
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