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Eredivisie

FC Twente - ADO Den Haag

09/12/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Twente
2.1
Total xG
3.3
ADO Den Haag
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FTADH

FC Twente

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.77
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.48
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.41
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

ADO Den Haag

Attack weakness (0.15x league average)
-2.11
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+1.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap)
-0.17
Nigel Thomas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.3 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.48
+1.48
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

23%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Offensive dominance: FC Twente averaged 7.6 shots on target per match with 61% possession in recent games
  • Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a home win probability of 56%
  • Defensive vulnerability: ADO Den Haag concede a high average of 2.8 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • Physical fatigue: FC Twente have a short recovery window with only 3 days since their last match
  • Twente squad impact: Only 15% of the usual seasonal goal production is currently available
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head records
Overview

FC Twente (5th place, 10 points) host ADO Den Haag (17th place, 1 point)

Eredivisie match on September 12, 2026, 4:30 PM at De Grolsch Veste

A clear clash between the upper third of the table and the relegation zone

Form

FC Twente look stable with a form of LWWDW

They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their recent games

ADO Den Haag are struggling with a form of LLLDL

The visitors have recorded 4 losses and 1 draw

Statistics

FC Twente score an average of 1.74 goals per game while conceding 1.18

ADO Den Haag concede a highly vulnerable average of 2.8 goals per game

The visitors concede 2.33 goals on average in away matches

Twente remain defensively solid at home with only 0.94 goals conceded per game

Key Players

Wout Weghorst is a key threat upfront with 2 goals and a 7.25 rating

Younes Taha impresses with 1 goal and 2 assists, holding a 7.54 rating

Sondre Ørjasæter contributes 1 goal and 1 assist to the attack

Yannick Eduardo is the visitors' top scorer with 2 goals this season

Evan Rottier has recorded 1 goal and 2 assists with a 6.97 rating

Juho Kilo stabilizes the midfield with a 7.09 rating and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Lars Unnerstall is in goal for Twente with a season rating of 6.64

Kilian Nikièma guards the net for Den Haag with a strong 7.21 rating

Twente have already secured 8 clean sheets this season

The visitors from Den Haag are still waiting for their first clean sheet

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at De Grolsch Veste

Twente score an average of 1.71 goals per game in their home stadium

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game overall

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