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Eredivisie

AZ - Willem II

09/11/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
AZ
2.2
Total xG
3.9
Willem II
1.8
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AZWI

AZ

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+1.32
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.82
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.35
Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average)
+0.35
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.32
Kees Smit not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

Willem II

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-1.72
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+1.13
Defensive weakness (3.2 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
+0.91
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.52
+1.52
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

22%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

75%

Under 2.5

25%

Over 3.5

55%

Under 3.5

45%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

74%

No

26%

Key Factors
  • Visitor weakness: According to the dataset, 0% of the usual goal production is available for Willem II
  • Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Willem II managed only 2.5
  • Form gap: Perfect league leaders AZ (5 wins) face winless Willem II, who concede an average of 3.25 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Willem II conceded an average of 4.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Data quality: Limited data available for Willem II's player form
Overview

AZ host Willem II at the AFAS Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 11, 2026, 8:00 PM

A clash between the undefeated league leaders and the 17th-placed team

AZ started perfectly with 15 points from 5 matches

Willem II sits near the bottom of the table with only 1 point

Form

AZ is in outstanding form having won all 5 matches so far (WWWWW)

Willem II is still waiting for their first win of the season, taking only 1 point from 4 games (LLDL)

Most recently, Willem II lost 0-3 against Excelsior

AZ celebrated a close 3-2 victory over SC Heerenveen

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

AZ scores an average of 1.71 goals per game this season

Willem II has already conceded 13 goals in 4 matches

The visitors concede an average of 3.25 goals per game

AZ is defensively stable at home, conceding only 1.13 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the historical record, there have been 2 head-to-head matches between them

Both teams have won one match each

The overall goal difference is 3-2 in favor of AZ

The last encounter on February 2, 2025, ended in a 2-0 win for AZ

Key Players

Ro-Zangelo Daal shines for AZ with 4 season goals and a rating of 7.69

Peer Koopmeiners pulls the strings in midfield with a rating of 7.61 and one goal

Mateo ChƔvez impresses defensively and offensively with one goal and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Jari De Busser guards the goal for AZ, holding an average rating of 6.58

AZ has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Willem II lines up with Maxime Delanghe in goal and has not kept a clean sheet yet

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the AFAS Stadion

The venue history shows high-scoring matches with an average of 4.6 goals per game

The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at 75% by the model

AZ boasts a strong home record with 1.70 goals scored per home game

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