Match report →
AZ – Willem II1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
AZ
2.18
Total xG
3.93
Willem II
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AZ | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −1.72 | |
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.52 | +1.52 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +1.32 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +1.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (3.2 conceded vs 2.3 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.82 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Kees Smit not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Visitor weakness: According to the dataset, 0% of the usual goal production is available for Willem II
- Tactical dominance: AZ averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Willem II managed only 2.5
- Form gap: Perfect league leaders AZ (5 wins) face winless Willem II, who concede an average of 3.25 goals per game
Risks
- Away weakness: Willem II conceded an average of 4.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Data quality: Limited data available for Willem II's player form
All probabilities
Result
AZ47%
Draw22%
Willem II31%
Double chance
AZ or draw69%
Willem II or draw53%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Both teams score
Yes74%
No26%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
Lineups
AZ 4-2-3-1 · Willem II 4-2-3-1
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 8 J. Clasie
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 14 C. Stengs
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 22 P. van Loon
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 7 J. Slory
- 9 D. Haen
Substitutes
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 34 M. De Wit
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 19 J. Hornkamp
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 12 H. Verhulst
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
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