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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - Telstar

09/13/2026, 12:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
1.6
Total xG
3.3
Telstar
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SHTEL

SC Heerenveen

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.09
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
Full strength squad available

Telstar

Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-1.59
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+1.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.41
+1.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Telstar: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Telstar: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

26%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Only 12% of the goal threat is currently active and available for SC Heerenveen
  • Heerenveen averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Telstar averaged only 2.4 shots on target
  • SC Heerenveen dominated the historical matchups with two victories out of two games
Risk Factors
  • Telstar concede an average of 2.25 goals per away match this season
  • Telstar's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
  • SC Heerenveen's recent goal average has dropped to 1.4 goals per match
Overview

SC Heerenveen host Telstar at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 13, 2026, 2:30 PM

A clash between table neighbors in 12th and 14th place

The mathematical model predicts a close match with a 40% probability of an away win

Form

SC Heerenveen showing form WDLDL with a recent 2-3 loss against AZ

Home team summary: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses

Telstar showing form WLLDL and a 0-1 defeat against FC Twente in their last match

Away team summary: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

SC Heerenveen average 1.69 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per match

At home, the hosts score 1.65 goals and concede 1.2 on average

Telstar average 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game

In away games, Telstar concede an average of 2.25 goals while scoring 1.5

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in historical records

2 wins for SC Heerenveen and 0 wins for Telstar

Goal difference of 6-2 in favor of the home side

Last direct encounter ended in a 3-0 home win for SC Heerenveen on March 14, 2026

Key Players

Jacob Trenskow impresses with 2 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.26

Dylan Vente contributed 2 assists so far this season with a rating of 6.95

Sam Kersten stabilizes with 1 assist and a rating of 6.91

Ronald Koeman Jr. shines in the opposing lineup with an average rating of 7.2

Patrick Brouwer recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.95

Abdelnour Soualhia provides defensive impact with 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Bernt Klaverboer completed 5 appearances with an average rating of 6.81

Ronald Koeman Jr. featured in 5 matches and recorded an average rating of 7.2

The statistical comparison shows a performance edge for the visiting goalkeeper

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Abe Lenstra Stadion

The stadium sees an average of 2.2 goals per game

Home advantage is visible with 1.65 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded on average

The visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals when playing away from home

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