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SC Heerenveen – Telstar0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
1.57
Total xG
3.26
Telstar
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −1.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.41 | +1.41 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +1.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 12% of the goal threat is currently active and available for SC Heerenveen
- Heerenveen averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Telstar averaged only 2.4 shots on target
- SC Heerenveen dominated the historical matchups with two victories out of two games
Risks
- Telstar concede an average of 2.25 goals per away match this season
- Telstar's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
- SC Heerenveen's recent goal average has dropped to 1.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen35%
Draw26%
Telstar40%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw60%
Telstar or draw65%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Telstar: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Telstar: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 · Telstar 3-4-2-1
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 14 L. Smans
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 3 G. Alders
- 30 T. Owusu
- 17 N. Rossen
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
Substitutes
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 11 L. Oyen
- 49 A. Bouziane
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
- 17 R. Uldriķis
- 19 A. Martha
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 37 R. Oudsten
- 5 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 15 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
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