Match report →
ADO Den Haag – SC Cambuur1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
ADO Den Haag
1.28
Total xG
3.15
SC Cambuur
1.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | ADO Den Haag | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.43 | +1.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.38x league average) | −1.04 | |
| Defensive strength (2.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.94 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical forecast favors the visitors with a 50% away win probability
- Offensive trend is rising for SC Cambuur, averaging 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
- SC Cambuur averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, posing a major threat to the hosts' vulnerable defense
Risks
- Both defensive lines are highly unstable, conceding averages of 2.67 and 3.0 goals per match respectively
- ADO Den Haag lost both games on this artificial turf, conceding 7 goals in the process
- ADO Den Haag averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches, limiting their offensive impact
All probabilities
Result
ADO Den Haag25%
Draw25%
SC Cambuur50%
Double chance
ADO Den Haag or draw50%
SC Cambuur or draw75%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Cambuur: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
Lineups
ADO Den Haag 4-4-2 · SC Cambuur 4-2-3-1
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 15 M. Hokke
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 25 J. Kilo
- 33 M. Šín
- 27 I. Thomas
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
- 11 E. Rottier
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 33 M. Maertens
- 8 N. Souren
- 15 F. Kvam
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
Substitutes
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 2 O. Raterink
- 18 S. Sylla
- 77 D. Bárány
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 23 N. Thiede
- 12 S. Eekhout
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 6 J. Amofa
- 9 S. Vink
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 21 J. Meijster
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 48 D. Westerhof
- 30 J. Ceka
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