Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam - SC Heerenveen
09/19/2026, 04:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.6
1.8
1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%1:3
5%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Sparta Rotterdam
SC Heerenveen
League
The Lab
- 1SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- 2Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- 3Sparta Rotterdam: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 4Sparta Rotterdam: 10 of 28 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
24%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
69%
Under 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
48%
Under 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Not nominated: Shunsuke Mito (0T/2A) is missing from the Sparta squad
- High offensive activity: Sparta averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Heerenveen averaged 5.8 shots on target
- High scoring expectation: The mathematical model calculates a 70% probability for BTTS and 69% for Over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability of the visitors: SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
- Weak artificial turf record for the hosts: Sparta has won only 2 out of 10 matches on this surface
- Defensive issues for Sparta: The hosts conceded 2.4 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.92
Overview
Sparta Rotterdam host SC Heerenveen at the Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Eredivisie match on September 19, 2026, 6:45 PM
Clash of table neighbors: Sparta is in 12th place with 5 points, Heerenveen is in 11th with 6 points
Both teams urgently need points to distance themselves from the lower ranks
The model calculates 1.74 expected home goals and 1.83 expected away goals for this encounter
Form
Sparta Rotterdam form: WDLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
SC Heerenveen form: DLDLD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
According to advancedStats, Sparta's form trend is positive, while Heerenveen shows a negative trend
Statistics
Sparta Rotterdam scored an average of 1.18 goals and conceded 1.82 per game this season
At home, Sparta concedes an average of 1.5 goals
SC Heerenveen scores an average of 1.69 goals and concedes 1.6 per match
Away from home, Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.13 goals per game
Head-to-Head
4 head-to-head matches in the database
SC Heerenveen dominates with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Sparta Rotterdam, no draws
Heerenveen scored 8 goals, while Sparta scored 4 times
The last encounter ended on February 28, 2026, with a 2-1 victory for Heerenveen
Key Players
Milan Zonneveld (4 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.22)
Bas Kuipers (0 goals, 3 assists, rating 6.97)
Marvin Young (2 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.99)
Jacob Trenskow (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.28)
Dylan Vente (0 goals, 2 assists, rating 6.91)
Sam Kersten (0 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.88)
Goalkeepers
Michael Brouwer played 2 matches with a rating of 6.25
Sparta Rotterdam kept 11 clean sheets overall this season
Bernt Klaverboer played 6 matches with a rating of 6.9
SC Heerenveen recorded 5 clean sheets in this campaign so far
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Sparta Rotterdam's record on artificial turf stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses
SC Heerenveen has a strong record of 5 wins and 1 loss on artificial turf
At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, an average of 4.0 goals per game was scored in the last 5 matches