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Sparta Rotterdam – SC Heerenveen0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Rotterdam
1.74
Total xG
3.56
SC Heerenveen
1.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Rotterdam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.43 | +1.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Shunsuke Mito not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Not nominated: Shunsuke Mito (0T/2A) is missing from the Sparta squad
- High offensive activity: Sparta averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Heerenveen averaged 5.8 shots on target
- High scoring expectation: The mathematical model calculates a 70% probability for BTTS and 69% for Over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability of the visitors: SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
- Weak artificial turf record for the hosts: Sparta has won only 2 out of 10 matches on this surface
- Defensive issues for Sparta: The hosts conceded 2.4 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.92
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Draw24%
SC Heerenveen40%
Double chance
Sparta Rotterdam or draw60%
SC Heerenveen or draw64%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Sparta Rotterdam: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: 10 of 28 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 · SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 6 J. Baas
- 8 C. Hatenboer
- 7 C. Terho
- 10 I. Babadi
- 11 J. Ideho
- 9 M. Zonneveld
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 14 L. Smans
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Substitutes
- 19 A. Kostić
- 14 N. Verschuren
- 21 J. Toornstra
- 16 T. Quintero León
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 22 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 17 R. van Cruijsen
- 18 A. Roaldsöy
- 12 B. Reith
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 11 L. Oyen
- 49 A. Bouziane
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
- 17 R. Uldriķis
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