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NEC Nijmegen – Go Ahead Eagles1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
1.88
Total xG
3.63
Go Ahead Eagles
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEC Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.37 | +1.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.24 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.83 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.52 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Adam Tahaui on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Struggling offense: NEC Nijmegen recently averaged only 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.1
- Tactical shooting advantage: The visitors averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 2.6 for Nijmegen
- Severely depleted away threat: Only 28% of Go Ahead Eagles' usual goalscoring share is currently active in the squad
Risks
- Short recovery period: NEC Nijmegen has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low attacking output: Nijmegen averaged only 2.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Leaky away defense: Go Ahead Eagles concede an average of 2.23 goals per game on the road
All probabilities
Result
NEC Nijmegen41%
Draw24%
Go Ahead Eagles35%
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw65%
Go Ahead Eagles or draw59%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (14/11 games, last 29)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 · Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
NEC Nijmegen
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 21 T. Storm
- 34 K. Kers
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 77 A. Thomas
- 9 T. Chery
- 10 D. Tadić
- 30 B. Linssen
Go Ahead Eagles
- 1 C. Haug
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 4 J. Kramer
- 5 D. James
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 16 V. Edvardsen
- 17 M. Suray
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
Substitutes
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 18 D. Geiger
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 36 F. Entius
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 37 M. van de Wiel
- 17 B. Nuytinck
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 38 J. Geneste
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 23 T. Baeten
- 18 R. Margaret
- 3 G. Nauber
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 22 N. Marsman
- 27 T. Galvez
- 6 T. Jukić
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