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Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen - Go Ahead Eagles

09/20/2026, 02:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
NEC Nijmegen
1.9
Total xG
3.6
Go Ahead Eagles
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NNGAE

NEC Nijmegen

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.52
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.26
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.03
Adam Tahaui on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Go Ahead Eagles

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.24
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.83
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.37
+1.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    NEC Nijmegen: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

  • 3
    Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Go Ahead Eagles with SĆøren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (14/11 games, last 29)

  • 5
    Go Ahead Eagles: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 6
    NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

24%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • Struggling offense: NEC Nijmegen recently averaged only 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Tactical shooting advantage: The visitors averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 2.6 for Nijmegen
  • Severely depleted away threat: Only 28% of Go Ahead Eagles' usual goalscoring share is currently active in the squad
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery period: NEC Nijmegen has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Low attacking output: Nijmegen averaged only 2.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Leaky away defense: Go Ahead Eagles concede an average of 2.23 goals per game on the road
Overview

NEC Nijmegen host Go Ahead Eagles at the Goffertstadion

Eredivisie match on September 20, 2026, 4:45 PM

Mid-table battle between 11th and 10th place

Form

NEC Nijmegen show weak form with WLDLL

The hosts managed 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last games

Go Ahead Eagles present a more stable run with form DWLDD

The visitors recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently

Form code meanings: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

NEC Nijmegen scored an average of 2.26 goals per game this season

The hosts conceded 1.56 goals on average

Go Ahead Eagles average 1.59 goals scored per game

The visitors conceded an average of 2.23 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Go Ahead Eagles lead the historic record with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Nijmegen

The goal difference stands at 5:10 from the hosts' perspective

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 victory for NEC Nijmegen

Key Players

Not selected for the hosts: Adam Tahaui (2 goals, 0 assists)

Tjaronn Chery shines with 3 goals and 1 assist for the hosts

Darko Nejasmic contributed 1 goal with a rating of 7.2

NoƩ Lebreton also scored 1 goal this season

SĆøren Tengstedt is the top scorer for the visitors with 5 goals and 2 assists

Victor Edvardsen impresses with 3 goals and 2 assists

Mathis Suray recorded 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Nikolas Polster guards the goal for Nijmegen with an average rating of 6.38

Kjetil Haug is between the posts for the visitors with a rating of 6.29

The hosts recorded 5 clean sheets so far this season

The visitors kept 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Goffertstadion

Stadium history shows a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in all of the last 5 home games at this venue

The model calculates a high probability of 71% for both teams to score

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